Could be wrong but the bollinger bands are now very tight again and look what happened the last 2 times they tightened like this
View attachment 1458713
Its funny reading the threads on here at times. Some people are just too impatient and want everything yesterday. LOl well in the real world building and financing projects like this does take time. I get the feeling that some people are either just short term traders with no patience....and by that I mean they expect holding within even a year to be making big profits or they really dont understand still how far advanced AGY is compared to most other lithium non-commercial staged producers. In the 3 years I have been in AGY I have been down 50% at times and up 1000% at other times. I guess it depends on the time frame you are looking to hold for but IMO the best gains will be made from holding through to at least commercial production and possibly longer and that is what I'm doing as I have every faith that JZ will make this a very profitable commercial project as even though there have been delays (and show me a project which doesn't have delays) he has still consistently ticked off the major milestones in a very short period of time Look at the list of things AGY has completed compared to these others and then tell me that JZ is not fast tracking this project. All this done in less than 3 years too.
- Ponds completed which can produce 2000 t/pa BG LCE
- A working and proven industrial scale pilot plant with a capacity of 500 t/pa which can be upscaled to commercial production capacity of 10,000 t/pa or more
- A world renown lithium chemical expert on the team who has developed a propriety commercially very profitable process to create BG LCE at up to 99.8%. I still think people under estimate how valuable having Pablo onboard is to the company and how having him on the team differentiates AGY from these other lithium companies. Remember AGY is a chemical processing company not a traditional mining company
- A completed PEA, which is more like a PFS, with real life costing data based on the results of building the ponds and running the industrial scale pilot plant not just some consultants estimate of costs which if you look at any PFS are usually way out of whack anyway when they come to actually produce
- A project IRR of 53% (yep 53%..thats huge) with a NPV of USD$399m and thats based on a discount rate of 10% and a sales price of USD$13k per tonne. Most other companies base their NPV's on 8% and sales prices of USD$14k per tonne and higher so JZ has been very conservative here IMO
- Small capex of $141m with payback period of 2.1 years. Again much less than most others are proposing in their PEA
- 16.5yr life of mine with annual production of 10,000 t/pa of BG LCE as the base case
- A JORC sufficient to produce 10,000 t/pa BG LCE base case and thats just drilled to 102m maximum at the moment. Most other companies have drilled to at least 200-300m for their JORC's and some are even now drilling to 600m so there is massive scope to increase this just by deeper drilling let alone buying more tenements
- A management team who are very prudent and conservative with costs. I read on here someone moaning yesterday that we will need a CR because JZ is just jetting around business class using company funds. What a joke and to that person I suggest you sell because you obviously haven't spoken to JZ at all as otherwise you would know he only spends when he absolutely has too and he always has shareholders interests at the fore front (remember hes the biggest single SH'er so its in his interest too). JZ also takes out a much smaller salary than alot of other mining MD's
- A very smart MD that has recognised that there is a hole in the market currently for a "boutique" type lithium producer who customises their product exactly to what one or few specific endusers want and in doing so is building very strong lasting relationships with those companies with the potential IMO to sell the BG LCE at a premium price
The list goes on but these are the main reasons why I am backing AGY and will continue to do so. Having spoken to JZ alot I also have every confidence that he will get the financing deal done for commercial development and that the deal will be a great one for SHer's IMO.
