Daily
Positives
Stoch 5 is still rising & above the sig line (just)
Stoch 14 is rising & above its sig line
Histogram is rising toward zero & is showing a divergence from the MACD
Fridays volume was lower than the prev bar.
The close was at a tentative support line.
Negatives
MACD is trending down & below its sig line.
Stoch 5 is below the oversold line & appears to be faltering & is closing back on its sig line.
The close was at the day’s low.
My model shows a downside alert (lower low than the last close) This currently has a 79.5% hit rate.
Outlook
The early signs of support returning early in the week look like stalling but may just be the smart money playing their usual games.
The downside target from the breakdown of the previous range was .095 - .098.
Given the alert sig's I expect we will see more selling pressure next week with the sp testing the previous low of 0.97 again.
Volumes have remained low so I don’t expect that to change much as accumulation appears to be taking place as it has done after every sell off the last 5 months. From my models it looks like aprox 5 million has been accumulated so far in this current range (0.13 - 0.99)
Nothing fundamental has changed & AGY continues to build the infrastructure that they (we) will need for the future.
If anyone has purchased at any time in the last 12 months and has continued to hold until this point there is no reason to sell now with the OT this close & more to come after.
Weekly
Positives
Unfortunately, there are few positive signs worth mentioning atm.
Negatives
Stoch & the avg line have crossed the oversold line & trending down.
Vol was slightly higher than the prev bar
MACD & Histogram are trending down in in their negative zones.
I have a weekly downside alert (80% hit rate)
on my system.
Outlook.
It is looking likely that we will see the downward pressure continue until the OT is announced.
Whether that translates into large volume selling remains to be seen as the volume has so far been relatively low despite the market’s best efforts. I take that as a positive sign.
I would expect to see last week’s low retested.
Beyond that then weekly support looks to be around 8.7 – 8.8 if we continue down & short term resistance 10.5 (the last support)
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