Daily
Positives
Stoch 5has crossed back above its sig line
Stoch 14 has crossed back above its sig line & is above 50
MACD is still rising & above the sig line
We continue to make higher highs & higher lows
Fridays vol was relatively higher than the prev. bar & the sp seems to have been well supported after Mondays vol & price spike.
Continued testing of the top of the range.
Negatives
Has not been able to conclusively close above the 0.061 – 0.079 trading range.
Histogram has dipped (possible bearish divergence forming)
Outlook.
It appears that there is still some supply waiting to sell into any attempt to push the sp up but there does not appear to be a lack of buyers prepared to take them.
Resistance is at the top of the outlined range & also at the down trending line. The Histogram dipping below the prev bar may be signalling a pause in momentum but the S/T stoch’s are showing momentum still rising.
The daily chart overall is positive looking and it looks likely that there will be another attempt to move up in the next week but there are signs of weakness
A breakout of the range would give a target of 0.09 initially, Support is initially 0.076 then down to 0.072 - 0.073 area Currently closed at resistance at 0.079
Weekly
Positives
Stoch 5 is above the 50 line & its sig line is at the line
MACD is above its sig line & rising
Histogram is rising & is above zero
The weekly bar shows a 50% retracement from the high of this rally (from 0.061 – 0.087)
There have been 5 higher lows in the last 5 weeks
The weeks vol. was relatively lower the prev weeks high vol. potential breakout.
Negatives
The Stoch 5 has peaked & looks to be flattening off, potentially starting to close on its sig line.
The weekly high was lower than the prev. weeks high.
The close was below the prev weeks close
The MACD is very wide from its sig line.
Weekly outlook
Despite the close being in the upper half of the weeks range & the long tail on the bar, there does appear to be some weakness (supply) still in the market. This is evidenced imo by the close being barely above the mid point of the range.
We have already had a 50% retrace of the current move but AGY also regularly retraces 62% of the time so I would not be surprised to see a retrace back to the 0.07 – 0.071 area again.
My model shows the potential to make a lower low than last weeks close.
Current weekly support is 0-07 – 0.071, resistance is around 0.089 – 0.092
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