Hi guys,
I have used the add revenue index as my source for comparison to the industry (https://adrevenueindex.ezoic.com/)
Firstly, to those moaning about December only coming in at 4% higher than November, after being up 14% for the first 21 days of Dec vs first 21 days of Nov - please see the images below taken from the index (2018 and 2019)
As you can see, November has a peak in revenue in the last week which sees the highest daily revenue for the year! This is why November closed the gap on December. The Ad Index had 0% MoM growth for December 2019, while EN1 achieved 4%.
Below is the growth in revenue for 2019 - comparing all months revenue to that of January:
EN1 strongly outperformed the index.
Using the Index for January 2019 as a model: based on the revenue for the first 12 days of January 2020 we would expect a full month revenue of $1.77m. While I would be happy for anything $1.5m+, I have used $1.77m to forecast revenue for 2020. See the graph below.
If EN1 achieves something halfway between the two forecast profiles, I would be very happy. FY20 revenue of $40m would give a PBT of roughly $5m, worthy of a SP somewhere between 10c and 30c.
If the excessive scrip issue has come to a close, then the outlook is very positive.
Thoughts welcome
