2019 will be a turning point for IFN?, page-72

Black coal is definitely around the $80-85/Mwh mark for new build and i agree a $55/Mwh wind/solar PPA does not make sense for any developer...

For older build see p19 of AGLs 2019 half year report which provides an indicative view of what the operating costs (ex debt) of a coal dominated and super flexible portfolio looks like...ie around the $49/Mwh- an increase of 25% YoY across fuel, maintenance and D&A - and with a carbon intensity 17% higher than the NEM.

To note AGL and other black coal operators are not materially exposed to export parity black coal prices- if they were you can add another $15-20/Mwh to the fuel cost (they will be in a few years time - which makes sense why AGL wants to close Liddell PS)

Leaving aside LGC prices, i would expect electricity prices to continue to increase towards long term build/operate prices in the future regardless of government policy...unless we are talking about massive subsidies (for building the plant and running the plant -incl. fuel).