2020: $14...Inverse Of $41..., page-569

• Phase one, there's a shock. The market panics, everything gets sold. Selling is indiscriminate and that's what we had and that the crisis this time was a health crisis.
• The second phase of any sell off and recovery is the snapback. The market goes, "Yes, you know what? We've oversold, we've panicked. There's lots of bargains here. Let's buy some things. And the market rolls back, but there's still uncertainty.
• The third phase, and this is where I think we are now, is reality. So reality is companies have a grip on their earnings. They're giving guidance, getting more of a grip, poor economic data is coming through. Eventually, that'll start to slow down and you'll start getting signs of a rebasing. So we're in this rebasing phase, trying to work out what's the starting point. When does the trough come in economic terms and in earnings terms. We think as we get through June, that will definitely be the rebasing point. And as we progress from there globally, we'll start getting better news on the economy and better news on earnings. And that's the fourth phase that happens then.
• The fourth phase is a genuine, steady recovery off a much lower base and the base is low because COVID is basically stopped develop market economy. Recovery off that lower base and more of a normalised, steady recovery.