Realinfo - I understand your caution and think you've raised some good concerns previously, some of which I've shared. But as you know there always will be risks because we can never know everything. I can't predict the future and say how far ahead our competitors are, it's anyone's best guess.
If I was going to trust someone on that it would be a leader in the field such as PVDM, someone has been in it longer than most. If he says the nearest competitors are 5 years behind us, that's better than any of us on here could predict.
I dont think you need convincing about Brainchip's potential if you have as many shares as you indicate.
I myself consider Brainchip to be both high potential and low risk, for reasons I'll try highlight below:
1. Akida will be sold very cheap - $15 from PVDMs last presentation. As FF has previously said this will hamstring most competitors trying to get into the market. It will also dissuade others from trying to reverse engineer it because the cost is too low to justify.
2. A few months ago multiple posters tried to identify worthy competitors and all fell far short. Almost all of them are developing accelerators and not processors, which don't come close to what Akida is capable of.
3. Patents. As highlighted on many occasions by Uiux and other posters, PVDM has patented STDP. I feel most haven't grasped just how significant this is, but it is a huge barrier for competitors trying to develop a chip capable of actual learning like Akida. On top of this we also have the dynamic neural library patent.
4. The neuromorphic research field is a very specialised market and there are a very limited number of individuals with the knowledge and intelligence of PVDM. On top of this, the SAB includes experts like Simon Thorpe. A lot of the renowned SNN experts are all in our company which further reduces the chance of another company being able to outdo us.
5. In the event a company does get a hold Akida 1 and try reverse engineer it, it will take time. By that time my guess is we would likely have a large market share though we only need a small percentage to make it worthwhile.
6. We already have Akida 2 in development and Akida 3 in research. These are not small incremental upgrades, they are large technological advancements on their own. Just knowing this I concur we are likely in the order of years ahead of our nearest competitors. In the event someone was able to replicate Akida 1, they would likely still be years away from the next versions.
7. Credibility of management. While mistakes have been made in the past, I think there's been noticeable improvements. I remember the beginning of the year many were voicing distrust about LDN when he was saying the chip would be ready. However, pretty much all he has said since then has come true. If he says revenue will come soon, I'm inclined to listen. Plus his excitement in some of his last presentations indicates there are really big things in the works.
8. Recent hires to the company have been world class additions. Top personnel from ARM, Nobel Laureate Barry Marshall, Christa Steele. Some of these jobs weren't advertised, rather they were hand picked. This shows how eager people are to get on board.
9. Similarly we have only worked with Socionext and TSMC, who are world class companies to design and produce the chip. This greatly derisked everything.
10. We have EAPs with NASA, Ford, Magik Eye and Valeo. In case the names aren't significant enough, some of these companies seem to have been providing input into the chip design. This is about as close as you can get to a guaranteed sale without one being made.
11. There are about two dozen hand selected EAPs expected which includes several fortune 500 companies.
12. In the event a chip is copied by a foreign entity, do you think we'll suddenly lose business interest from NASA, Valeo or Ford? I think that's unlikely, and these companies alone have significant spending capacity. If anything the US government might step in to try ban imports from the foreign country. And again I doubt the entity would be able to produce it cheap enough for potential customers to warrant bypassing Brainchip, especially when advanced versions of Akida aren't far behind. Plus for a fee Brainchip will provide technical support which is arguably just as valuable as the chips themselves.
13. There are more than sufficient cash reserves.
14. The potential new markets created by Akida and resulting revenue are huge. Space, autonomous vehicles, drones, medical devices, the list is limited by your imagination.
15. Initial testing results are very promising. Super low power with high accuracy has been confirmed, with some of this having been verified by leading institutions.
I understand some might think there's a lot of dot-joining, up-ramping or speculation occurring on this forum but I'm yet to see any significant red flags that make me question where Brainchip is heading. I'm more than happy to discuss perceived weaknesses and threats but I suspect most of this would be considered just as speculative as other discussions on here.
If management are to be believed it won't be long till your patience is rewarded. Until then our little battler will continue chugging along and building up speed as we approach the next year.
Exciting times ahead.
Pure speculation, DYOR
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