View attachment 2261862Good morning ladies and gents.
What you see here is a graph of our beloved Aggie, lithium etf, and Dow Jones (except 23 hour trading, not the 8 hour version). Based on the value of Dow we should be valued at 5.8, and the lithium etf 7c.
See my analysis below however, this is not an automatic buy signal, perhaps the contrary.
As i publicly predicted, we've seen a bit of a dump following the pump we had (clearly identified by the high RSI forming an outlier on the top) People got shitty with me for pointing it out, thats fine i don't take it personally... im here for facts not emotion.
It's been interesting taking into consideration all the information out there to make an informed investment decision and predicting where the price will be.
Some of the positive information out there:- The COVID-19 pandemic has catalysed further government stimulus for the EV industry. This is particularly seen in Europe, mostly Germany. Jerko has mentioned this recently, and may be hoping to take advantage of this for our funding perhaps. As the whole economy practically needs a stimulus, why not provoke it with something useful for the environment - thoughts by many government bodies.
- Benchmark Minerals Intelligence have been quite vocal with declaring how many mega factories (giga factories?, whatever they're called) are being built at the moment. They are quite commonly stating how each one requires a certain amount of lithium input for its operations (somewhere between 20,000-40,000 tonnes pa). Of all the current ones existing today though i quote them that i think only half of them are actually operating at the moment. So its great they're building them, but nonetheless demand still needs to be there. From a capacity perspective though its all building up for a potential big boom.
- On the perspective of demand, according to Benchmark, lithium demand will increase 6-fold by 2028/2029.
- Funding may be soon, have to balance using the technicals to hop in and out to score yourself free shares with the possibillity of getting caught with no underwear (i.e not holding any at the time). AGY always seem to be releasing some kind of progress, although its not the slam dunk we're hoping for just yet, so we will get it eventually! I am skeptical of the timelines put out by Jerko however (Q1, no no no... Q2, no no.. Q3 now) etc. But it will come.
- I saw in some parts of the world they're starting to make Electric charge points compulsory at petrol stations.
- Positive long term lithium narrative continues.
Some of the negative prospects out there- Slumming lithium prices, prices were starting to move positively again before the rona (COVID) but now it wont be until 2021/2022 until lithium prices start to ascend. Does this mean the continue of a bear market until then? who knows.
- Orocobre are only receiving $4,000 per tonne of their stuff. Although it is really shiet quality, no offence. There's the narrative that BG quality holds its price well. i've heard some stories its (12,000-15,000) as the good quality stuff is low in supply. But i've also heard its falling like everything else (7,000-12,000) who to believe? - who knows, we'll find out when we discover how much we got per tonne from the 5 tonnes we sold soon.
- Corona cases really are picking up again. This is the most dooming element there is to be analysed. While Australia seems mostly fine at the moment America's cases have gone from 35,000 per day, down to 20,000 per day. The economy seemed super happy about that, cases were falling, economy opening back up, now they've opened it up and now there's 42,000 cases per day there now and exponentially rising. They have no choice but to leave their economy open, so does most of the rest of the world. This is quite damning
- Dow Jones and the rest of the international markets are falling at the moment due to these 2nd wave corona fears.
- Mummy and Daddy investors have lost a bit of their confidence after buying during the recent euphoria rally and got absolutely burned following the recent downturn.
- The federal reserve has almost exhausted every bullet in its chamber, they're providing stimulus to families, buying junk bonds, interests rates are 0% in America rn i think (if not, 0.25%) can't remember. They're also providing liquidity for corporations. Not many more tricks up their sleeve. We saw their great efforts save us from an absolute market collapse, but can they do it again as 2nd wave fears emerge?
- International tensions: China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Trade deal, India vs China.
Outlook between the 2- Long term, utmost faith in lithium. People know im an advocate that this company could easily be $1 in the next 5-10 years. The future prospects beyond the short term nonetheless look good. If anything the COVID scene has hastened the EV pathway through stimulus and further subsidies.
Short term, 1 of 3 scenarios:1 - Could see a complete detachment of the stock market from reality as we have seen and prices slowly ascend up in a V shape. PE ratio wise the American markets are the most expensive since the dot com bubble.
2 - i think this may fall to around 4.5 - 5c, at this stage the central banks and Donald Trump might bring in a whole load of new efforts to do whatever they can to artificially keep the stock market going as we have seen before.
3- the central bank efforts may not be enough, Corona may become out of control and economies simply cannot close because so much damage has already been done. America had no choice but to open their economy and now the cases are surging. We could see 3c lows again if this happens and a proper crash.
Here is pretty much all the information i know at this stage. Feel free to use it and interpret it however you please. I like telling both sides of the story. Back when this was 35c and dropping like a knife the only thing this forum ever said was "Morgan Stanley are wrong" this should be booooming (insert rocket emojis) - not 1 single person actually gave a valid fundamental analysis behind why things were falling. Mummy and Daddy investors by history always lose out. and guess what, this is a forum of mostly mummy and daddy investors. So lets get informed shall we.
Thank you.
(20min delay)