Daily
Positives
Unfortunately, there is nothing good to say atm
Nearest upside resistance is 0.075 – 0.077
Negatives
Pretty much everything you never want to see on a chart is there at this time.
MACD is trending down & below the sig line
Histogram is trending down & below zero
Stochastics are trending down & in oversold territory
Closed at the days low on very large volume, a very wide down bar & broke down through many s/t support areas
Outlook.
Nothing fundamental has changed so this sell off looks like a combination of disappointment that there is still no sign of a funding deal & an over reaction to other geopolitical factors such as the coronavirus & has been ongoing for some time. Since the failure to conclusively breakout of the top of the old flag 5,490,896 have been sold down & into any up bar’s.
Looking at the last four bars shows increasing daily selling volume with the ticks showing an overall 2,974,295 which was 47% of the weekly volume being sold during this week alone.
How much of that is/was shorting we will never know but it would almost certainly be professional involvement taking advantage of the current market sentiment.
The close Frid is at a prev low where strong support returned after a previous failed breakout attempt so we may get a reversal around this current area.
A failure here though would give a potential downside target initially down around 0.065 – 067 then on down to 0.06.
It is abundantly clear that AGY is going to remain under significant downside pressure until the funding is secured & even then the market may judge that deal harshly if it does not live up to expectations.
Weekly
There are few positive aspects apparent on the weekly but they are looking shaky
Positives
The close Frid is on a projected trend rising up from the 0.064 lows in Oct 2019
The Stoch 5 is very wide from its avg line & has reversed sharply but remains in the bullish zone above 50. That may become a pivot point for a reversal but seems unlikely.
MACD is still above the signal line
Histogram is above zero.
Negatives
Broken below the 8 week support (0.073 – 0.076) with larger vol than the prev week
The MACD trending down & is almost back to the sig line. Will likely cross below in the coming week
Histogram is trending down toward zero
Weekly outlook
I have downside alerts on every time frame so expect to see a lower low than Fridays close during the week which may result in a retest of the prev low down at 0.064 – 0.065.
A break of that will then open the way for further falls down to the prev 0.06 area.
However, based on my models I also expect to see a relief rally or attempt to recover during the coming week.
The previous up trending line will act as a S/T resistance imo from around 0.075 & up to 0.08.
Monthly
Well here we are again, 7 months of sideways trading & breaking the down trend & we are retesting the 10 month support again.
Positives
Stoch 5 is rising & above the oversold line
Histogram is rising & continues to diverge from the MACD
The 10 month rising trend is still intact & still above the 2
nd higher low
Negatives
MACD trending down
Moderately higher volume & closed at the monthly low
Failed to follow through & break the down trend
Outlook.
The current pull back is likely to be equally related to the market sentiment generated by the coronavirus as much as disappointment in the lack of funding or delivery of the 5 ton of Li to Mitsi.
My system shows a downside alert so based on that I would expect to see a lower low than Jan close & potentially a retest of the previous lower lows around 0.061 – 0.064 but would expect that to have the same result & the current support at 0.073 to hold.
No one knows what the repercussions of the coronavirus will be but the fundamentals of AGY have not changed & neither will the demand for Li.View attachment 1966795View attachment 1966798View attachment 1966801
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