2020 - Cradle's year?

I think CXX is good value here at approximately a $9.5m cap with $1.6m in the kitty. This was even better value at 3cps - 4cps but volume was low at those levels. After watching since 2016, I have decided over the last few months to finally take a position.

PEK/ORR are both (apparently) on the verge of receiving their SML's which are required for large scale operations in Tanzania. This is has been an obstacle that aspiring developers must satisfy if their project requires investment of over $100m USD. Without this, projects are unable to advance to mine.

I don't follow PEK closely, but I know ORR has received strong ongoing institutional support. Even in the last few years when sentiment towards TZ has been out of favour. Which to me, is a great sign of faith from deep pockets who are close to the scene. Of course these three projects are apples and oranges, but to me it demonstrates that investment in TZ is well and truly alive, contrary to the views of some.

Tremont still have the largest holding at 19.47% of Cradle. Closely followed by management, which if anyone knows - are some of the best in the business. Although Middlemas resigned (IMO to conserve capital), he still owns 15.4m shares and Craig Burton with 30.8m shares. Their interests are well aligned with shareholders.


In terms of the future of Panda Hill; I don't think much more additional work will be done by Cradle. I believe this is a sitting duck for a takeover offer, likely by Tremont. Will it be at 33c again? I'm not sure. But I strongly believe it will be multiples from here.

I also was watching from the sidelines in March 2019 when Tremont was rumoured to be in talks regarding a second attempt at a takeover. Although nothing eventuated from this, I found managements wording rather interesting in the corresponding ASX announcement.

" The parties remain in regular contact in relation to a variety of matters, essentially operational issues but also including a possible control transaction. However, there is no agreement in this respect and no formal offer has been received. No advisors have been appointed and there is no certainty that any definitive agreement will be reached in respect of any ongoing discussions. "

I like to read between the lines, so make of that what you will.

Anyway, I would love to get some discussion going.

This is all my personal, biased opinion. Please don't take it as gospel.