@MJP I'm not beating down UNV. You need to understand a few financial things 1. Profits are an accounting measure and it is non-cash. If you have high depreciation of asset then your profits could be 0. TER have BNU on their books which they had to write off because it is not producing as originally estimated (and based on which they took the loan) - hence they are writing it off. the main reason of their "loss" 2. TER have high margins - around $25/T at the bottom of the coal cycle. Once the Coal price improve - TER will have even higher margins 3. TEr has high Cash Flow - which is the most important metric. They have high amount of inward cash and high debt servicibilities (Ebitda/Debt Interest >>1) so the debt is not much of an issue if they could service. 4. Dividends are paid through Cash flow and not profits (as explained above about cash and non cash metric) - When you refinance a loan - the covenants are setup by lenders to ensure the company does not give away more than the lenders want to in the form of dividends. As OCP asia is TER biggest lender as well as biggest holder - OCP has no problem in TER giving away higher % of their cash as dividends.
At the end of the day you should just simply look at cash flow statement.
TER is not as badly placed (however UNV not having any debt and cash in bank (i'm not sure if they do I haven't checked yet) is awesome)
You may get 33c as I said before - Beyond that I highly doubt it. and it would be composed of a cash component and TER share (after I hope TER has appreciated substantially)
As for quarter 2 I expect around $14m ebitda for TER and cash in bank of maybe $45m (provided they have used the $27m for extinguishing some of the earlier debt liabilities)
TER Price at posting:
32.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)