Hi w1L. I have considered depreciation and to some extent tax writedowns and the resource base.
Based on this thread and some earlier comments what concerns me (from a risk perspective) is that;
there are comments about using Mongolia depreciation expense essentiially as a method of effectively reducing Group tax payable. OK that's fine but some commentary then mentions sellimg Mongolian assets to use as an offset to some of the Terracom $200m+ debt. From my perspective I wonder what benefits another company would see/get in buying these assets that Terracom is not achieving already. And of course coupling that with the fact that Terracom are trying ot offload/restructure Mongolia coal because its underperforming......For the Australian asset then you have to replace depreciating P&M as it wears out so you don't get the same impact.
As for the resource base yes it looks great but its still only coal in the ground. All projects seem to be early stage and I don't believe any yet have had any feasibilities studies carried out. So no one knows yet how they will stack up economically and what sort of capital (more debt) will be required to get them operational. Also how long will outstanding regularatory approvals take and the EIS. Are we talking 5 years?
So where do I personally stand at the moment. I am waiting for the half year report. Which, not withstanding a 1c dividend, I feel is unlikely to look very pretty from an ongoing business perspective, apart from spin. Hope I'm wrong. Also concerned at the tanking the share price has taken over the last 12 months what is the logic? And of course if coal goes back up to $85 US/ton then all TER shareholders should do well. Roll the dice.
Anyway as they say often DYOR I am only putting down my current thoughts on the matter.
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