Agree completely with Access 2020's analysis. Great sharp ad...

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jlo2012

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21/01/20

18:17

Post #: 42498910
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Originally posted by Access2020 ↑

Thx for starting a new thread - about time and I was just about to do the same thing. I agree on your thoughts re 2020 for MWR but will contextualise for those sitting on the sidelines thinking about whether to jump in.

1H20 preview
MWR will issue an update Tuesday or Wednesday next week. That announcement will provide an update of unit sales over the recent Christmas period (source: investor relations)

I've stated previously that unit sales right now are the most important driver for the share price - specifically the growth rate. In Sep 2019, management provided guidance of ~35,000 units to be sold for 1H19. At the AGM, management further stated that year to date sales plus stock on hand to be sold amounted to ~37,000 sales [note: that becomes our sales ceiling for this half]. This provides a very tight band to land in - I'm at 33,000 for 1H19 as I think there could be some slippage and have applied a conservative filter in my valuation FWIW. Whether the number comes in at 33,000 or 37,000, the key thing is it will be at least 3x 1H19 unit sales of ~11,000, which is crazy growth.

Other bits of information I will be looking for will be updated distribution numbers or new partnerships (unlikely to be new partnerships in this announcement IMO), paid app subscribers and how many SIMS were sold in the UK given that each SIM sale also provided MWR a 15pound commission - straight to the bottom line thank you very much. I doubt we will get average unit price as that's likely to be in the half year announcement which will probably come in early Feb.

Risks
I've built up a fairly large position ahead of this announcement (to hold and not to trade) as I am very bullish on MWR but there are risks building up positions in a stock that is falling ahead of a price sensitive announcement. While I have no idea on what the announcement will be I don't think there have been any leaks as volume has been weak. I think the gradual falling of the SP has been driven by the insto seller finally getting out and traders/holders that were thinking there would be an announcement around the same time as last year, which did not happen. Whether that is an omen or not we will find out soon. Either way, I've backed in my research on this one. If/when I have time and post that update I'll share some valuation metrics to support the thesis on this one but it is compelling.

At a very high level, 2021 looks like having +100% EPS growth on a PE of <12x. With a market cap of ~$41m there is a crazy amount of upside here. DYOR and GLTAH

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Agree completely with Access 2020's analysis.

Great sharp ad just released - will attracts lots of parents eyes just before school goes back.

MWR Price at posting: 29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 2.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $9.42M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	526315	1.9¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.1¢	60000	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	526315	0.019
3	261150	0.018
1	1000000	0.017
1	100000	0.016
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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.021	60000	1
0.022	504727	3
0.023	57039	2
0.024	150000	1
0.025	33809	2

Last trade - 07.00am 08/05/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 2.1¢		Change 0.000 ( 5.00 %)
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Agree completely with Access 2020's analysis. Great sharp ad...

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