2021-22 Harvest Updates, page-204

GNC's latest update for receivals shows a low level of incoming grain in the last week, unfortunately not what TillLindemann predicted.

To COB 28 November 2021, a further 129250 tonnes of grain came in to GNC storages in Queensland. The total of 1643200 tonnes exceeds the 2020-2021 figure, which is very pleasing.

However in NSW, GNC only had 240030 tonnes arrive, bringing cumulative statewide receivals to 2562790 tonnes. GNC comments about deliveries from on-farm storage to GNC sites in northern NSW and very strong canola receivals (pre-rain) in southern NSW. It isn't (publicly) suggesting the NSW harvest is a disaster or that all receivals are being downgraded to stockfeed, so that "may" be a positive. Perhaps even for GNC (as per the comments of an agromist a few posts back) it's still too early to be definitive.

While there may be a storm coming in from Cunnamulla (Qld) towards Coonamble (NSW), there doesn't look to be much rain in NSW as of 1430 AEDT, so that's a small help (assuming every paddock isn't still waterlogged).

In Victoria, harvest is ramping up, with 258430 tonnes being received, so the total has become 346830 tonnes. Pleasingly, GNC says the Victorian harvest is of 'above average volume and quality'. It's a second attractive day in Melbourne at 28 degrees at just after 1400 AEDT with graingowing areas such as Charlton 29.4 degrees and Nhill 29.1 and sunny, so much more grain ought be on the cusp of receival.

As a comparison, to 30 November 2020, GNC had received 937900 tonnes in Queensland, so in that state, the tonnage has risen by 75.2 per cent.

At the same date in 2020, in NSW GNC receivals were 6286500 tonnes, so 2021-22 receivals as of yesterday are 37237610 tonnes less or a decline of 59.24 per cent. There's much catching up to do.

In Victoria, at the similar 2020 date, 1454600 tonnes were 'in the GNC bins' so the deficit is a sizable 1107770 tonnes at this stage, or a decrease of 74.16 per cent.

All up, GNC total receivals to 28 November 2021 at 4552820 tonnes compare with the 30 November 2020 figure of 8679000 tonnes, so we are down 47.54 per cent so far. With my half full RBA Phillip Lowe-style glass raised, I'm suggesting things can only get better.

I won't be selling GNC at present.