Hi @Diamondballs, @Rocketsoul,Thanks for posting!My opinion:
Most important thing is that this excel cannot substitute for detailed research and has serious limitations, nevertheless, it is an interesting experiment and can be used as one data point of many when filtering for companies .
Limitations / distortions of reality include:
The excel says that it uses Pilbara MC vs ore value ratio, and it applies it to every other company. But each company has its own set of features, so other companies are not like Pilbara. E.g. not included in the excel are:
- Recovery rate (typically DLE projects have about twice better recovery rate, and this should modify the valuation to a great extent)- What lithium grade is expected : technical grade or battery grade or better? This has an impact on pricing of the product
- What are the expected costs of the production?
- Why is Kachi ore value considered only at 90% in this excel?
The excel obviously doesn't consider the other 4 projects of LKE.
Note: the excel values Kachi resource at around $129 billion. I made some resource valuation estimates for Kachi a few days ago here on HC, so that's a technique that I use, too.All in all, if someone understands the limitations of this excel, it can be useful as one data point out of many. But much more detailed research is needed.
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