2021 and beyond, page-6452

Similar conclusions from the latest LKE newsletter.

I especially find the forecasted "perpetual deficit" for the lithium supply very interesting:

"Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China reached a record high of RMB 179,000 a tonne on October 11, according to Reuters, and have surged about 240 per cent this year on accelerating EV demand.

Just a week earlier, BMI reported that prices of lithium carbonate had reached new, all-time highson the back of limited supply and sustained lithium-ion battery demand in China.

Benchmark’s EXW China (Battery) grade of lithium carbonate rose by 26.5 percent to RMB 160,000/tonne (US$24,800) in the final two weeks of September 2021, surpassing the previous high of US$24,750/tonne for battery grade lithium carbonate assessed on 30 March 2018.

“Looking forward, record high spot transactions are likely to incentivise a strong upward revision of contract prices in Q4 as new deals and pricing breaks are negotiated for the start of 2022,” BMI said in its October 6 report.

“Historically, supply contracts are negotiated in Q4 and can be influenced by sentiment in the spot market. It is this revision that sparked the surge in lithium chemicals pricing in 2015, indicating that the start of 2022 could see further momentum in price rises.”

The consultancy pointed to bullish times ahead, too: “Fundamentally, with little foreseeable downside price risk to carbonate or hydroxide pricing in the near term, as demand continues to outstrip raw material and chemical supply, the lithium industry is well and truly in the throes of its latest price rally, with further record prices expected in the coming months.”



The price rises have followed projections from analysts including BMI, Macquarie and J.P. Morgan that lithium supply is struggling to keep up with demand. A “perpetual deficit” is in prospect beyond 2030 until more projects are developed."