While recent posts are obsessing about a possible NASA announcement, I have been contemplating the potential growth trajectory and wondering where is the drive going to come from?
The drive will be from Early Access Program participants.Advanced Driver Assistance Systems. Autonomous Vehicles, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Edge Vision Systems, Factory Automation, Sensor Technologies, Artificial Noses etc. they are out there working on it.The NASA & Vorago programs are worth Kudos but I can’t see high volumes and therefore revenues (but will result in an intellectual property deal – not sure how lucrative).
Risks of delays include customer adoption of new products, adequate training and education, collateral materials, application engineering and customer support.
The key problem is learning to drive Akida.
Whereas the microprocessor market is well serviced with several layers of proven and robust operating systems and application layer software – Akida is a bare metal device with only one native software package (Python) available to program it, but requiring AI plug ins such as Tensor Flow, Scikit learn, Shogun, Theano, PyTorch etc.
If you have ever delved into the world of code cutting and had a look at the concepts required to develop AI applications, then you will understand that developing working applications is non-trivial.
In some cases, I suspect many edge applications with real grunt will be developed bare metal interacting directly with the Akida chip at machine language level (intense stuff) and even building new dedicated application specific chips.
Right now, Early Access Partners will have been going through a steep learning curve perfecting their knowledge of how to work with Akida to make it “do things” and understanding its quirks.
My point is, working Akida into a useful application device is not a week’s work – it might take months to years.
The learning curve will be on both sides as BRN technical staff answer questions from Early Access Program developers in an attempt to skill everyone up and help develop commercial devices.
And if such developments include incorporating Akida IP into new Application Specific Chips (designing and fabricating new wafers) R&D will be years.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the first commercially available device using Akida hits the market earliest late 2022 possibly even 2023.However, here’s the good news…
There is no doubt at all that edge AI has an enormous future with an open-ended billion-dollar market size. Open ended because nobody can realistically quantify it; the technology will grow new markets not currently in existence.
- Early Access Partners (some of which we are told are major global companies) will have invested millions of man-hours in learning how to develop useful applications with Akida. They will be naturally reluctant to repeat the exercise with a competing technology. That’s a huge barrier to entry.
- After the first application using Akida hits the market, the flood gates will open as other EAPs finish their development and begin launching.
- Having developed a first minimum viable product captured learnings will be applied with greater efficiencies and a development community will develop speeding future product development – the seeds for further explosive growth. This is 3 to 5 years away.
BRN has a huge future. I mean huge but our customers (early pioneers) are still in the lab and likely 12 to 18 months away from launching anything.Once this kicks it will grow hard and exponentially.
From a share price growth point of view, it is possible that BRN could get well into the $10 to $50 range simply on hype (no profits or revenues to support it) it wouldn’t be the first tech company to do that.
But wide embrace by the US Tech Investor market will be required. The keys to achieve this are…
1. Listing on the OTCQX is a great first step. But, it will take a while for the stock to get noticed, get analysed, and investment decisions made. Until BRN starts looking to raise cash they won’t be diverting management time to spruiking-up the price.
2. An initial highly publicised success story is needed – a first powerful application that uses the Akida Technology. Proof the technology not only works but is way ahead of the pack. One of the EAP companies will get there.
From my perspective the play is simple, accumulate as many shares as you can comfortably afford while they are still cheap.
For those who haven’t read it (new arrivals to BRN forum) the following is a good primer on BRN..
https://jwpm.com.au/industrial-marketing-blog/brn-brainchip-neuromorphic
(20min delay)