Positives
The trend is still rising
Negatives
Stoch 14 is trending down
MACD is below the sig line
Histogram is below zero & trending down
Outlook
The profit taking / selling has continued & shows no signs of stopping at this stage.
That in itself is not a bad thing & nothing to be concerned about.
Thu. Saw a hefty increase in short activity to push the sp below the 0.175 support & back into the 16 - 17.5 range. That was also the largest net sell vol day for 5 weeks. A sign of impending tree shake perhaps?
Fri. low touched on & bounced off the base of the channel & closed at what now may be s/t resistance or may stay as support.
The momentum indicators are mostly negative looking with the exception of the stoch 5 which has reached the lower end of the range & has turned up indicating the potential continuation of the trend
So in the s/t support is around 0.16 0.175 & resistance from 0.18 up to the top of the channel around 0.21.
Weekly
Positives
Stoch 5 is in the bullish zone above 50 & rising
MACD is above the sig line & rising
Negatives
Stoch 14 is above the overbought line
Histogram is lower & shows a divergence
Failed to make a new high & vol decreased at resistance
Outlook
Over all the weekly chart is great & rising at a sustainable angle.
However, the last two bars have seen a failure to carry higher & was on lower vol.
There has been no true test of the previous resistance at 0.16
Selling has continued into the 5
th week since breaking 0.15 & this is seen in the overall net buy / sell volumes (-8,283,460 last week)
So imo & in the absence of any outstanding new fundamental announcements we are overdue for a correction as one would expect to see in the normal market pattern that AGY usually displays.
Weekly support & the base of the current range is around 0.16. Resistance is at the top around 0.185 – 0.19.
The two most regular normal retracements (50 & 61% Fib) are down around 0.125 & 0.135 respectively & should not be discounted at this stage. Neither can they be presumed.
I would prefer to see a 3 – 4 week sideways consolidation in the current 0.165 – 0.19 price range.
I don’t care what it does in the short term as the L/T trend & outlook is rosy.
Is a good trading stock atm if read correctly & with patience.
Monthly
At the mid point of the month, the chart is still bullish & there is plenty of time for a new high.
The momentum indicators are all rising & have positive outlooks.
Vol however is weak in comparison to the last bar at the breakout & so far unable to to follow through but that is what one would expect to see after such a huge vol driven change on the last bar & at this time in the month.
So imo one would expect to see a retest of the breakout point at 0.16.
Long term AGY future outlook is very bright.
In the short term & this is reflected on the daily & weekly, there may be some consolidation or weakness involving lower prices.
Long term investors would not be concerned but traders might
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