Daily 8 Oct
Positives
MACD is above its sig line & rising.
Histogram is above zero & is higher than the prev bar
Stoch 5 has flattened out & returning to the sig line
Stoch 14 is returning to its sig line & remains in the bullish zone above 50
Negatives
Stoch 5 is trending down & is in the bearish zone below 50
Outlook
Having broken up from the 0.16 – 0.185 range on 30 Sep the 0.185 level was tested during the week. This test appears to have been successful & 18.5 - 19 may now become support.
Fri vol was net buying 1,121,062 & may just be a reaction rally, Fri. high was a 50% retrace of the down swing from 22 to 17.5.
That level may be retested again next week but I would like to think that 18.5 will ultimately be confirmed as support.
Fri high was at a resistance along the prev rising trend channel currently around 0.20. When we break this pattern that the next projection is up around 0.35
My daily models show multiple upside alerts indicating a higher high than the last close so I expect to see the resistance along the rising trend line to be tested but a big ann. is needed to drive the sp through the next area of converging trends around 0.20 – 0.22
That will come when it comes.
The daily noise is just a distraction.
The trend is up & strong & there is just too much good stuff happening to change that imo.
Weekly
Positives
MACD is rising & above its sig line
Histogram is above zero
Stoch 5 is in the bullish zone above 50
Negatives
Stoch 5 is trending down & below the sig line
Stoch 14 is coming down out of the overbought area & is below its sig line
The Histogram is trending down
Outlook
The trend is bullish & we are currently testing the top of the previous range around 0.185 – 0.19. The low last week going back into that old 16 – 19 range was enough imo to satisfy the 61% Fib retracement requirements measured from the 14.5 low to the 22 high.
The close then is sitting on support at 19 for the second week in a row.
My weekly models show multiple upside alerts & so I expect to see a higher price than the last close.
With the Stoch 14 generating a sell sig as it crosses out of the overbought area I would also expect that there will be some attempted downside pressure until we get a more exciting update. That may result in a return to the 16 – 19 range for a week or so but won’t matter in the long term if it does & it seems unlikely now that we will retest the 14.5 low from 3 bars ago.
The last 2 bars do show sellers (or blockers perhaps) bt they are being soaked up.
Short selling last week was minimal & the outstanding shorts at the start of the week had dropped to below 1m.
Resistance atm is around 20 – 21
Weekly vol was lower than the prev bar & showed overall net selling of -8,778,419 in contrast to the prev weeks 14,603,267 net buying during the breakout.
The trend looks strong so any dip should be supported along the rising trends if support fails.
