Agree
@BullishFrog.
If the JV goes ahead it means we are going to production, we will be fully funded for Kwinana. Massive de risking event, stating the obvious there.
It's impossible to work out just where the share price might land though.
So many variables with a couple including:
- what % of the JV each party gets
- what else are they working on behnd the scenes other than a plant in Kwinana (how big it might get)
The list goes on.
What has been eluded to in a few of the presentations Roly has done on various platforms since the MOU is that any JV with Alcoa is not a project but a HPA strategy.
If they were working through a JV for the Kwinana plant it wouldn't be that complicated a negotiation.
However if they are taking multiple plants, possible alternate HPA products for the EV Battery space and other opportunities, then how is the rest of it funded? Who funds what in the future? Very very difficult to price that potential today. Alcoa have hundreds of millions of dollars on the bank after selling off assets in the past 6 months so you know they are good to fund their way forward however big the strategy might get.
The best thing about all of this though is that even though they are the elephant and we are the mouse, we hold the aces as without us they can't get into the HPA space anytime soon. We can - and will be so it would be in their best interest to come along for the ride with us.
This is where the market has still got it wrong with FYI and they think without Alcoa there is real doubt for us forward and perhaps why our share price is where it is still.
I am really hoping we can announce 'FYI progress' in the coming weeks to prove to the market we're on our way.
GLTAH
