assuming single plant (DCF), 50/50 JV with Alcoa paying 50% capex @ 40% debt ratio:
risk adjusted - 78c unrisked - $1.57
assuming 50/50 JV, multiple plant growth potentential in line with industry growth rate (P/E based)
risk adjusted - $1.50 unrisked - $3.50
Market is currently pricing in the base case on a single project basis in my view.
Plenty of upside potential here. The only case I see a lower valuation post negotiations is (obviously) if the deal falls through which I think is unlikely.
FYI Price at posting:
83.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
