In my view, we have been oversold and it really depends on if GEM has finished selling and if Perpetual is now going to hold on which I am told they are. The sentiment was shot for FYI and there is still a way to go to get back to where we were - clearly.
I think January should be a positive one, will be interesting to see if sellers continue to come in the lead-up or if they are done at current levels.
As frustrating as these last few months have been (from a share price perspective) I think that once FYI starts announcing some material progress around phase 2 etc some holders who exited after the Binding JV announcement and perceived delays will consider jumping back in. Particularly once they realise that perhaps there isn't as big a delay as first thought and that Alcoa has structured all of their future business initiatives in stages.
My comment above is not saying there haven't been delays. I just don't think they are as bad as the market suggests they are.
When you think about it the move to phase two is quite exciting really. It means we are going to commercial production, albeit at a demo scale. A4N are doing a small scale but not for the same product as us - for a precursor. ATC haven't spoken about their HPA plant in Malaysia in ages.
If FYI and Alcoa can get it right it is possibly to scale up quickly to meet demand with the Alcoa balance sheet behind us.
As for the share price well at least this time on the way up we won't have regal offloading, we no longer have the GEM facility hanging over us, have hardly any options outstanding and are virtually fully funds for the first plant meaning any large players wanting in will need to buy on market.
A lot of water to go under the bridge but that's where my thinking is at.
FYI Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
