IMO share price is significantly undervalued vs intrinsic value.
Based on my analysis (caveating that I own shares in CAT and the below is based on my own calculations so please complete your own research prior to making any investment decisions):
- CAT's top-line revenue increased 6% in FY20 and has grown at an average of circa ¬19% in the past 3 years.
- Free cash flow to equity was approximately $14.8m in FY20 (including approx. $22m in operating cash flow, $13m capex, and $5.8m net debt issued).
- Applying the FCFE Gordon Growth valuation model shows an intrinsic value range of $2.80/share to $4.20/share, assuming long term growth rates of 7% to 8% to FCFE.
- This assumes a 10% required return on equity.
- This implies a range of potential upside to intrinsic value of approx. 64% to 150% based on the current market price.
Not to mention the company is now free cash flow positive, has very little debt on the balance sheet, is a price maker with high barriers to entry and a durable competitive advantage, and can benefit from operating leverage as revenue continues to grow. This is a great long term hold in my opinion.
IMO DYOR.
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1 | 2000 | 1.850 |
1 | 1000 | 1.845 |
1 | 1000 | 1.830 |
1 | 6582 | 1.820 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.940 | 1546 | 1 |
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