2021 prediction thread, page-375

It really depends on the play, there are CSG plays that work at 10mD but they are usually either oversaturated (with free gas in the cleats) or they are mature coals with very high gas contents. Most analogues to these Nomgon coals (shallow, low rank, fairly low gas content) need quite a bit higher than 10mD. The Walloons certainly do.

But if you put 10mD as your permeability parameter into a modelling program the result would look pretty good - the real problem is 10mD doesn't usually stay as 10mD under drawdown. If 10mD is the in-situ permeability then as you lower the pressure by production, in most cases the permeability will decrease as the cleats close up as the water is removed, and sometimes it will drop to basically zero (like the Walloons). How the Nomgon coals will behave is anyone's guess at this stage, but that's why it's important to pilot test them and see.

Re: tech staff yes, it seems they are using locals which may not be a bad thing, locals tend to know local geology. I was asking because I saw Cottee and Kelemen involved in non-exec capacities. Kelemen in particular is very experienced in the technical side of O&G but non-execs don't do the technical work and I don't always trust that boards get the full story from management, so I like to know who's doing the technical work.