best to look at OGP stuff but there are some good take over valuations on this analyst report
See page 14 table 7 for take over valuations based on 2P and 3P https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/96a7fe_142d3101fd0844eba030ee68fe8f68e4.pdf
For contingent it looks $0.10-$0.20
For 3P reserves it could be worth $1.50/GJ (see excerpt below)
From harleys 2020 feb report
The first step in a re-rating will be to book a contingent resource. Based on historical transaction values and current ASX listed peers we would expect the market to value a contingent resource in the PSC at less than the peer group average of 20c/GJ. Assuming 5-10c/GJ, the current market capitalisation of EXR implies a potential contingent resource of circa 250-500PJ (compared to a risked BPR of 7.6Tcf). If the core testing is successful, then this is obviously a conservative assumption. Post a successful flow test and the booking of reserves, the valuation would increase dramatically as shown. As a relevant example, Lone Star acquired Sino Gas and Energy (SEH.asx) in 2018 for close to $1.50/GJ per 3P reserve.
So 3P of 7Tcf could mean a $10B take over price but this is hardly analysis... It’s big numbers though and 7Tcf might be very low. Lots of work to do still and while it’s nice to dream a bit. We will learn a lot more with the relentless news flow (hopefully plenty of good!!)
