2022.. Baba...Bababa..BOOM

Source - 25th Jan 2022 Edisons MSB CEO interview, and Dachopper research et all...

Edisons " What is in store for 2022 " ?
SI: For GvHD, we are before the FDA with a submission / dossiers . Hopefully we will hear positive news from their review of our data over the coming months. We are preparing to interface with the FDA, and potentially will have our first product approved later this year.
( I think this means, they are waiting for the FDA to say yes we will accept a resubmission based on your dossiers, and once that occurs, the company will resubmit for the BLA, with a max of 6 month review timeline. Glad it's happening this year.... eventually they will get there)

SI : For Back Pain - Terrific interaction with the FDA on our confirmatory trial requirements. We own all the rights, and we will be taking this forward ourselves and retaining the full market opportunity in the USA.
( Not going to get any USA partners)

SI: Heart Failure - We will be working with our potential strategic partners to bring this to market in the coming years. We are in exciting discussion with the FDA at present.
(No partnership deal yet)

SI: Covid ARDS - We are working with out partner to prepare a pivotal trial
( I assume that this is the NIH who were partners in the first trial? )
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Back pain is interesting because of all their treatments, it uses the lowest number of cells ( 6 million ) - vs 150 million for CHF, and is a relatively straight forward Outpatient procedure that any hospital could perform.
In the USA - there are approximately 350,000 + spinal fusions done each year, with disc replacement ( a newer area ) taking up about 17,000 per year and growing.

Spinal fusions typically cost $100,000 USD for the complete hospital stay, vs an average of $66,000 USD for a disc replacement surgery.
It is hard to predict how many people who suffer from back pain and degenerated discs, would go for an injection, instead of getting their disk ripped out and replaced with a man made version, or having titanium plates screwed into their vertibra.
I did consider the fusion at one point, but chickened out. The Cell therapy with no side effects, I would have paid for.
How many other people live with the pain, because they down want the surgery, but would pay to walk in and out of outpatients, and then have 2 years with less pain..... I think the number will be much bigger than those wanting plates.

Lets say it starts out small - like the man made disks, and cost the same price.
66,000 USD, and 17,000 patients. ( that would require 5 times the ammount of cells total, that they used in the CHF trial.... so not really a massive increase.

40% Margin on the end price
$ 448,800,000 Profit
Half a bill....... not bad.


And that is only tapping into 5% of the market share.

Here is a link to an older valuation spreadsheet.
Obviously this was pre-covid and quite a lot has slowed down since and during then, Credit Wombat777


https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/tracking-valuations.5376187/