2022 BRN Discussion, page-10414

Why the industrial metaverse will eclipse the consumer one

by George Lawton | Dec 22, 2022 | 11:08 PM

The consumer metaverse, exemplified by immersive games, new shopping experiences and the explosion of VR goggles, is the more visible, hyped side of the metaverse. But there may be far more money to be made in the industrial metaverse, a side that most consumers will never directly see. That’s the prediction of Michael Inouye, principal analyst at ABI Research.

The firm estimates that the industrial metaverse, exemplified by digital twins, augmented field service and predictive maintenance, could grow into a $100 billion market by 2030. That’s larger than the $50 billion consumer metaverse and the $30 billion enterprise metaverse combined. VentureBeat talked to Inouye to clarify why the industrial metaverse will grow faster and what are the use cases and underlying technology that will drive it. This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

VentureBeat: What use cases and underlying technologies will drive the metaverse?

Inouye: The key enabling technologies include connectivity (5G/6G), 3D/Web3 (including 3D content generation), AR/VR and mixed reality, compute, AI/ML and IoT. Speaking more broadly, there will be an increasing convergence in connectivity, compute and intelligence across networks. The management of data, traffic and applications will require intelligence added by AI and ML. Demands on computing resources will also grow considerably, particularly at the edge, where more content will be distributed [and more] data processed and stored, and [there will be] a growing need for edge/cloud and hybrid computing.

Smart glasses represent the most transformative changes, particularly on the consumer side. This will bring more applications, services, marketing and advertising into public spaces and closer to the network edge across significantly more touchpoints. Marketers and advertisers will have to balance these new opportunities with changes to privacy and digital identity. Content and services could be consumed in more places and in new ways. In this regard, smart glasses could enable a pervasive display.

New opportunities will be born out of IoT, autonomous and public transportation, and connected environments. Workflows and supply chains will become more connected and optimized and feed digital twins and simulations to anticipate and adjust to potential bottlenecks or changes up and downstream of the user.

The rise in digital assets, including the potential to engender new marketplaces for 3D assets and NFTs, not only creates new asset types but also greatly expands the creator economies. Content creators will help populate the metaverse with 3D assets, structures and worlds. Avatars and their virtual items will rise to a new level of importance and value. Virtual items could be “worn” as overlays through AR applications — giving new value to getting a bundled virtual item with a physical good, especially if that user can also sell that virtual good like any other physical item.

Eventually, virtual communities could create extended places for individuals to meet and socialize. Similarly, physical offices could be virtualized, allowing hybrid work forces to work in the “same” office, whether in the physical or virtual location.

The opportunities seem limited only by the boundaries of imagination when the physical and virtual come together, potentially impacting all markets across consumer and enterprise, from tourism to education, manufacturing, research and beyond.

Under the hood

VentureBeat: What kind of infrastructure will be required to drive it?

Inouye: This is a critical element that often gets overlooked, and a reason why our forecasts may be lower than some of the more optimistic figures out there. For example, the pervasive and mainstream use of smart glasses is a massive leap from where we are today. Current smart glasses and even near-term devices are not mainstream in terms of technical performance and design.

Next-generation glasses will get closer but likely will not appeal to a similarly sized audience as the first Apple iPhone and Android smartphones. We currently view the rollout of consumer smart glasses to look closer to the rollout of smartwatches than the pivotal iPhone moment in smartphones. One way to bring the form factor closher to real glasses while improving battery life and performance is hybrid and cloud computing. This could also reduce the cost of devices.

Devices can become more svelte, lighter and more power-efficient by offloading some of the computational resources to the cloud. Edge computing will also be critical to support applications that require lower latencies and future changes to data storage and management. Part of the vision of the metaverse also speaks to shifting control and value to the end users, which would require the decentralization of data.

The transition from 2D to 3D will also greatly increase the demands on compute, especially within the cloud, which will be necessary to make these experiences accessible to the masses. AI/ML will play key roles across the metaverse, from networks to content generation, using generative AI and neural graphics.

All of this speaks to that previously mentioned convergence of connectivity, compute and intelligence. These heightened demands on data and compute and [need for] ultra-low latencies will create a demand for leading features from next-generation networks like 5G Advanced and 6G, something that has not been widely demanded by users in current 5G markets.

As with most elements of the metaverse, though, there is a great deal that must happen between now and the realization of this future vision. Whether we call this future a metaverse or not, many of these trends will continue to push towards a future that includes many of these elements.