Daily 26 Aug
Outlook.
The pattern atm looks negative with an almost completed H & S with the implied negatives related to that if it breaks the neck.
Daily volumes remained low with Thu & Fri being very low & net selling taking some of the shine off an otherwise good week.
The break above 40 Thu. was short lived & easily blocked.
Vol was again very low & appears to be just churning atm
The open short positions remain low but are rising slowly.
The daily reported numbers are imo having an impact on momentum getting started but don’t appear to be causing any real selling to come in just yet.
Given the selloff on the US market Frid it should be expected to see our market follow suite & AGY may be dragged down along with the rest.
Looks like a good excuse for a shakeout coming up.
Support is currently 36.5 & if that goes then the old support levels are down around 35 & 31.
A break above 40 off the back of a really good update & next resistance is up around 42.5 – 45.
It is getting a bit tiresome watching the capping & manipulation but our turn will come.
Weekly
Outlook
Support at 36.5 – 37 is holding but still being tested.
That looks likely to continue early in the week but a positive update on the 2kt plant may limit any selling if our market sells off this week & could be a catalyst to break out of the current consolidation area.
A break at 36.5 & 30 - 34 comes into play again.
The L/T trend is still rising but struggling to gain momentum.
Resistance is still holding around 40 & the rising trend angle
Clear that & 45 – 46 is next.
Weekly vol was about half that of the prev week & was overall modest net buying.
Even the BEOT sems to have run out of steam & are just waiting for the kettle to come to the boil to decide which way to go.
That may be decided first thing Mon with a shakeout with the rest of the market or we may just ignore what the market does & focus on what is coming in the near future for AGY.
The expected project update could become the catalyst for a long awaited rerate or a selloff if it disappoints.
Whatever happens, Pablo & his team have it all under control for the long term outlook
There is little for us to do other than sell, watch or go for a holiday.
I am having a holiday for a couple of weeks
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