Daily 16 Dec.
Positives
Stoch 5 is above the sig line & has crossed the 50 line into the bullish zone
The 61% Fib line was tested & so far held.
Negatives
The daily support at 59 has failed to hold & may now become s/t resistance.
MACD is trending down. Histogram is trending down & below zero
Stoch 14 is in the bearish zone below 50 & below its sig line.
Outlook.
Potentially, we could have just made a double bottom at 59 & get a bounce / relief rally from here to take us back up to around 65.
However, my daily models continue to show downside alerts so I expect to see more downside pressure continuing in the s/t.
We have dropped back into the previous 46 – 59 range & could go more yet.
There is a FVG below at 52 – 54.5 that may be in someone’s sights.
A dip down into that area would meet a rising trend projection if that eventuates.
Shorter’s are still influencing the sp & will continue to do so.
Mon. reported shorts were 192,279 but ASIC reported new open positions were 560,176. This mis-reporting is a regular occurrence. Just how much selling is shorts will always remain a secret.
Daily net sell volumes were low apart from Thu after the bounce off support was halted which led to Frid break & lower close.
Current support is at the 61% line around 56 then down into the FVG area.
Resistance is from 59 up to around 63 then on up at 65 – 66.
The earlier pennant that was forming appears to have failed but the L/T trend is still solid.
Everything is on track for a stellar year ahead. Be patient while they get it right.
Weekly.
Outlook.
We held up well all things considered but the pressure is mounting the longer we wait for the expected announcements.
The current pause & pullback is healthy & not unexpected despite being seemingly driven by world events & the lack of progress towards obtaining permits or funding.
They will all get sorted when needed.
This is a great time for traders but boring for L/T investors.
Meanwhile progress on commissioning continues & is all we need to focus on at this stage.
The breakout pattern from 3 weeks ago is still playing out & the b/o point was again tested last week.
We have so far managed to stay in the new range after the b/o from the prev 46 – 56 range but could see another dip back there on the next bar.
Last week’s low tested the wkly support at 56 & closed a bit higher but the indicators are negative looking which may then lead to a lower low on the next bar.
Weekly support remains atm at 56 then down around 52 – 53.
Weekly shorts (if they were all reported) up to Thu. were 17% of the -4,543,165 net selling volume.
The charts are starting to reflect that the market may not be going to get any of the long awaited announcements before xmas or new year but we are certainly in a lot better position than at the same time last year both fundamentally & the share price.
Time to concentrate on the EOY festivities & de-stress.
Merry xmas everyone.
AGY Price at posting:
58.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
