Weekly 18 Feb
Positives
Stoch 14 is still in the bullish zone above 50 & is just above the sig line.
The low for the week was higher than the prev low 4 weeks ago.
Negatives
MACD is right at the sig line & may or may not cross below it but it looks likely to.
Histogram is back to zero.
Outlook.
While it is clear that geopolitical events are driving the market atm, the weekly chart has performed as expected & retested the support around 34 again. Now it needs to bounce to solidify that support again.
If it bounces then resistance is 38 – 40.
The projected down trending line (Red) is acting as resistance atm.
This should be resolved either way on the next bar. If that trend persists however 34 may become resistance & the sp settle back into the prev 21 – 34 price range.
Support in the event of further down side should then come back along the rising trend currently around 30 but could be as low as 28.
I am not expecting the sp to retreat that far but won’t be surprised if it does, given the current negativity on world events.
Vol for the week was relatively low & was -6,253,868 net selling.
Nothing has changed fundamentally & there does not appear to be any real selling.
Daily
My outlook for the daily last week was about as wrong as it could get.
Support at 36.5 failed & the drilling permits have still failed to spark any interest.
The trend however is still up & the turning point looks near but that will depend on world events again in the coming week.
The low last week was back at the mid-point of the prev 28 – 36 range.
The indicators are mostly negative looking just now but there are signs of them stabalising & flattening off.
Fri vol was net selling but low compared to earlier in the week
Frid hammer candle & slightly higher vol could have been be a blow off & signaling a bounce is coming.
So at this stage support is 32 then down at round 28.
Resistance if we get back above 34 is up around 35 – 36.
There is nothing we need do now except wait.
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Mate, 12:30??? You’re slipping buddy.
(20min delay)