Daily 25 Mar
Positives
MACD rising & above its sig line
Negatives
Stoch 5 is crossing out of the O/B area, is below its sig line & headed down
Stoch 14 is in the overbought area above 80, is below its sig line & headed down
MACD appears to be flattening. Histogram is trending lower (Divergence)
Vol has fallen the last 2 bars
Outlook.
We have had a significant & continuing rerate from the April lows & there are now signs of a pause / potential retrace just now which would likely follow the usual patterns if it happens.
That would be a healthy S/T breather imo but will not stop the steady rise & accumulation that we have seen since Apr.
Open shorts were down to 344,704 as of Mon but daily reported numbers remain relatively high as were the Borrowed / Loaned numbers. So, the manipulators are still doing their best to keep a lid on things. I expect Frid shorts to be higher.
My target for Mar is still 48 but momentum appears to be slowing so time will tell if it makes it.
Resistance atm is 45 – 46. Support is initially at 42 then down to around 39.
Weekly
Positives
Stoch 14 is in the bullish zone between 50 & 80 & is rising
MACD crossed the sig line & rising. Histogram crossed above zero & is rising
Vol increased last week as the sp made another high
Closed in the upper half of the range
Surpassed the prev high of 46
Outlook
I see nothing particularly negative on the weekly chart atm from a TA perspective other than it seems to be in a resistance zone from 42 up to 46 but the manipulations by the pros is ongoing & may hold the sp back in the S/T
Vol continued to increase on the last 3 bars but the sellers have almost neutralised the buying last week.
Despite the rise & bullish looking candle, net buy vol was down significantly from the prev week at only 83,119 last week.
I expect to see a higher high than the last close & potentially reaching 48 but there is definite selling pressure on the daily atm so it may happen later in the week if it does.
An initial 38% pull back would take the sp down around 39 - 40
Resistance is 46 – 48
Some testing of support then should be expected & the first line there is around 40 then back around 36 – 365.
A break above 48 gives the next upside target of around 62
All up the weekly is looking great.
The monthly speaks for itself but with the s/t negatives on the daily I would be looking for the 40 – 41 support to hold in any pullback on the daily.
Monthly Vol is a bit light on atm but should exceed the prev month. There has been obvious selling during the month but at this stage it is still net buying of 4,869,306.
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