The pennant is seeming less assured over the last two candles on the daily, but there's still a reasonable possibility it may play out, the last two candles are still very much compatible with a possible pennant, they just require the bottom boundary to be moved which eliminates some previous tests of it. If not for the Dow Jones doing an Amber Heard on Friday night I'd be a lot more confident about it, and if the ASX was open today I'd be expecting it to fail to form or break down, but if the DJ is better than expected tonight we might still see it play out favourably. The last two candles have definitely been a bit disappointing in this respect, but let's keep in mind that in the big picture this doesn't matter at all for long term holders, it's only relevant to traders or for those of us enjoying the show while watching ebbs and flows along the overall journey upwards.
@seagull Would you mind explaining how you determined the top and bottom of the pennant, and how you determined the midpoint of the box to be 51c? I'm reading it slightly differently, and in the world of TA, if you're a bonfire I'm barely a candle so I assume you have it right and I don't.
I agree that tomorrow before 10AM would be a luscious time for the 10,000TPA permit to be announced, but my gut is telling me that we're going to get it around the time the 2,000TPA plant is commissioned. My reasons for thinking this are perhaps too controversial to say here, but basically, lines-reading-lines that's when we'll really need it so that's probably when the wheel will be greased, and if no grease was required to make that wheel turn, I'd expect we'd already have seen it happen; there is no good reason for it to have taken this long, it hasn't been denied, they're almost certainly going to approve it, but clearly 'something' is holding back the hand which brings down the rubber stamp. That hand presumably knows when the approval is going to be critically needed, and they've dragged out this long, to shortly before we critically need it, so presumably that's when, why and how it's going to happen.
I suppose it's more calculated reasoning than a gut feeling, with a reasonable dose of speculation thrown in of course.
