COB 1.11% 8.9¢ cobalt blue holdings limited

Hi Petr, Notwithstanding the great reply from Jenkstar, I can...

  1. 61 Posts.
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    Hi Petr,
    Notwithstanding the great reply from Jenkstar, I can only reply with my own thought process. I think you are asking the right questions at the wrong time at an asymmetric share price. To wit, LG paid approx. 1 AUD for their shares a few years ago. To disclose, I only own about 50k shares of COB and 100k shares of JRV. I probably would have owned more, but am in the US, and COB is OTC, very thinly traded, costs me $50 USD a transaction and I refused to give in to price raising algos-probably penny wise, pound foolish. Also, I had other fish to fry where I believe there is more share price velocity, and my largest positions are in Digital Assets-merchant bank Galaxy, BTC miners, Photonics, NA Lithium Miners, and NA battery supply/tech. Also have Tritium SPAC and warrants. NMG graphite, NVX synthetic graphite. The major copper and nickel miners do not have the asymmetry potential I like and SunRise, high capex, HPAL, and too far out opportunity costs.
    I think currently this is catalyst driven stock, not unlike NVX was when I bought 50K at an avg price of $1.42 USD, though NVX is scaling rapidly and will list on Nasdaq soon, thus a longer timeline. But there was much speculation about projected revenue, and then they got strategic investment from Phillips 66 etc. Currently in the US, the Cobalt story is clouded by EV OEM favor(own none), Elon tweets(can't wait for his 15 minutes equivalent to be over), Lithium Miners, and now the latest darling is LFP. I do own some Nano One in Vancouver, and would buy 24M if it was public, but did sell FREY after a 50% gain to redirect capital(again what I believed would be better share price velocity). Americans magically think that the EV/Battery OEMs will take care of the supply issues and focus on the Gigafactory announcements.
    Then it falls on the Cobalt story of deficit, scarcity, ESG, current price trajectory which you allude to. I agree with Greg Young that you can't completely wean the Cobalt out of NMC even at 0.5% and why he came out of retirement. And Americans want to drive NMC, despite Elon's sales pitch, plus trucking, autonomous taxis, EVTOL, will all require NMC. So am not worried about demand, especially in NA. As to your 62k floor, all I can say is that China has the largest spot market and with my limited insight: Sunsirs -Cobalt-Non-ferrous metals 485200.00RMB/ton 12/27 which is >76k USD and think it would take a commodity drop like 2018/19 to get back to 62K, as EVs are just getting started.
    As to locked in prices, I think any company worth their salt would keep some for spot, they see what we see and even more so. Plus they have the example of Pilbara, who are creating a Lithium Spot Market hopefully similar to the one for Iron Ore. There will be some demand destruction and concern for EV/ICE price parity but the Tsunami is the tsunami... I did have concern about COBs measure tonnage/mine life but I chose to take them at their word, that business wise, they chose not to dilute, drill later based on cash flow/on hand but are accumulating acreage. I think some dilution is inevitable, especially in an JV or strategic investment but the demand case is stronger. In my mind, unless I get a huge dollop of capital, I will revisit my COB shares in 2025. In the meantime, if you want shares at these prices, you will have to take some speculative risk. Otherwise you can pay the price when the revenue questions are answered which is a way to go.
    This was just my individual thought process with my risk comfort and you should take my opinion with a kilo of salt.

    Cheers.
 
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