Can add some of Macquarie's commentary around that (all...

Can add some of Macquarie's commentary around that (all highlights are Macquarie's).

• ABARES Dec-23 crop report was a positive surprise to ourexpectations with unfavourable conditions and lower crop yields inQLD & Nth NSW more than offset by good growing conditions in VIC& Sth NSW. VIC saw the largest upwards revision with a +12% increaseto 9.6mmt. Total ECA winter crop est +4% to 21.7mmt and 14% above20-year avg; we note the December estimate is typically +/-5% of finalwinter crop production number so has good predictive ability. Afteradjusting for GNC's historical market shares across ECA states (Fig 10),we infer the Dec-23 update is a 5% lift vs Sept-23 estimate (i.e., 1%better than the headline upgrade).

• 2023/24 harvest delayed by late-Nov rain across VIC & NSW with GNCreceivables data showing a drop in grain deliveries compared to priorweeks. BOM fct indicates rainfall over December not likely to exceed themedian; this should help with timely completion of winter harvest andminimise grain quality D/Gs. 2021/22 harvest was impacted by heavyrainfall & flooding; in that season, the GNC network was able to 'catch-up' with harvest and impacts were minimised (Fig 8). Other offsets inclGNC's ability to mix different quality grains alleviating quality reductions.

• Prospects for decent summer crop after rainfall in Nov with ABARES fctof 3.8mmt (Sept-23 est of 4.1mmt). In Nov, soil moisture profile had beenunfavourable for summer crop planting (Fig 16); recent rain has seen alift in sentiment and probability that summer crop will be planted.