This is spot on IMO. Just look at timeline of the Renesas deal as an example, it took 2 years to go from licensing to tape-out and it’ll probably be another 6-9 months before their products hit the market. Roughly 3 years between the licensing payment and the first royalty payment i.e. when the real ongoing money starts coming in.
Development timelines will be different for each company and product of course but I’d say 2-3 years would be a conservative average. So I highly doubt that we’d be able to reach a $20B market cap in 3 years time because there just won’t be enough products out there (and in turn royalty revenue) at that point. But the snowball has started rolling and judging by the sheer number of engagements we already know about (and knowing there’s plenty of others that are still in stealth mode) I’m confident it’ll get bigger and bigger at an ever increasing rate.
Then again Afterpay got to a $40B MC without being profitable so what do I know?
BRN Price at posting:
74.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)