Current version of my forecast chart. Note that the previous...

Current version of my forecast chart. Note that the previous Wave 1 has now been reset because the last wave 2 went too low and thus reverted back to being the C wave of the previous correction.

At this stage this chart is very much a guess because it depends entirely on what height Wave 1 reaches which I have set to circa 16 based on expected break height of the large declining wedge encompassing the C Wave. From that I have applied EW standard average percentages to construct the remaining waves in the cycle, but we really need wave 2 to complete to actually forecast it with some accuracy. Note it is a lot lower than the previous pattern would have created. The pattern assumes no external white or black swans. Eg a purchase announcement during the period would void the model at this stage, as would an announcement of a PL5 run. Announcements of further positive tests, vague positive IMEC discussions & ongoing commercialisation plans, etc would be reasonably expected to be assumed within the model as it stands.

The pattern of the previous 5 wave cycle predicts this cycle should be able to reach 30+, but at the moment I have it reaching 23 - 26+, so there is an anomalous outcome being forecast suggesting either W1 or W3 is too low.

Timing is largely rubbish, and my best guess only at this stage as we simply don't have the required data yet.



We would expect W1 to consist of 5 substeps, so look for the first w1.1 to turn around 13.5 and retrace to circa 12, the climb to circa 14.5-15, then pull back about .5 to 1c and climb to 16'ish.

Note the chart is an hour chart.