I have never said or implied that TA is only relevant when the price is going up. It can obviously be very relevant when going up, down or it can suggest the price is likely to remain stable.
But currently, no one is going to look at the chart and say "Oh, great, I'm going to buy!" because the chart is terrible. Some might decide to buy at this time because the price is so low and we are looking at great value, but more than that will be freaked out/disillusioned and keen to get out on any amount of recovery which means any significant amount of recovery is extremely unlikely before we get news.
All the chart currently tells us is that we have a floor way below fundamental value (IMO) and I can't see us going that low, and a support level around 15c which is the absolute low I think we are at all likely to see without catastrophic news.
I'm not saying the chart has zero relevance at this time, I already described the relevance it has. What I'm saying is that the chart alone is not going to have any positive relevance (that is, we're not at all likely to get above 34.5c and probably won't get above 31c) before positive fundamental developments, and we the fundamental value is pretty much setting the floor (which at 22.5c I think we've probably already hit assuming nothing catastrophic happens).
Sometimes we can look deeply into the TA, various indicators and patterns etc speak volumes to us, but at the current time there's no point in looking into any of that, we're just sitting down at the bottom waiting for news.
I agree, smart money would have jumped out in the 50s and if not then, in the 40s (examples of times where TA was highly relevant in a bear scenario). It's easy to see now in hindsight but between being in the middle of travels at the time and just not being able to shift my thinking quickly enough and maybe being a bit too gutless, I didn't do so. Looking at the dates of the crashes on the chart and remembering where I was at the time (in remote areas with no internet a few times and stuck in airports/planes at others) it's actually quite an unfortunate coincidence, but it is what it is, and barring disaster we'll see a rally due to the fundamentals over the next six months.
If we do want to completely ignore fundamental value and look exclusively at the chart, I would expect to see 22.5c failing by the first of September and 15c support tested 1-3 weeks later, and I cringe to admit, that isn't out of the question. Completely ignoring fundamental value I would next expect a period of consolidation followed by either a test of 8.5c or a reversal to a higher level. I doubt we're going anywhere near 8.5c due to fundamental value (or a takeover) and I doubt we're going to move up much at all from any low we do see without positive news.
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