We established a nasty downwards channel about five weeks ago, yesterday we broke above it and today we seem to have confirmed that the channel has broken. I've shown the channel on the chart below, I've set it at the daily scale going back to the start of July but the channel shows equally clearly on the daily scale.
This is a relief, I was watching this channel for a while, especially over the last three days, since we were testing the top and if we failed to break above it we were most likely going to retest 22.5c and possibly test the lower end of the channel in the mid to high teens. This seems to have been avoided... for now.
From here we'll most likely either see the top of the channel become support for a higher but parallel channel, or we might just sit and consolidate for a while. Either way our next move is reasonably likely to be a retest of the recent 28.5c high, and from there we'll see the system choose a direction.
I really didn't expect us to retest a low from early December 2021, but then again I didn't expect us to be monitoring radio silence during this stage of development at the 2,000TPA plant in August 2023. Still, other than the delay which isn't actually that extreme compared to what we were expecting 6-12 months ago, things are going just as expected and we should still see our old price targets hit, just a bit later than expected.
Without any big news I expect 22.5c to hold (possibly being retested in the not too distant future) and I doubt we're going to beat the mid 30s without news and we quite likely won't see the 30s again at all without news. News is obviously inevitable and like most here I am quietly confident it's going to be good and will push us much higher, but I expect we'll sit in the current range between now and then. It's good to have a couple of glimmers to positivity on the chart to suggest the never to be beaten low might be behind us, assuming we do get news before we get too close to the next reporting time. Radio silence until then will definitely freak out the market, so we all hope to see news soon.
AGY Price at posting:
25.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
