Daily 6 Dec
Positives
MACD is above its sig line & trending. Histogram is above zero & rising
Stoch 14 is rising through the bullish zone above 50
Increased Vol on Frid.
Negatives
Stoch 5 just moving into overbought. Currently at/near a S/T resistance area
Outlook
After reaching the base of the rising trend channel in the final week of last year & reversing, the S/T down trend seems to have run its course & we have recovered back 61% from the lows.
Thu & Fri were solid net buy vol days & hopefully are the start of a run up to the top of the channel around 80 - 85 but that will take time.
Fri. close @ 62.5 looks to be right on the trend line drawn off the 72.5 & 68.5 highs.
So, 62.5 – 65 could be a S/T resistance area next week but the momentum may keep rolling a bit more yet & get to around 65 before the next pause.
Fri. candle is above the prev resistance around 59 – 61 & that area may now be support going forward.
I would expect a retest of that area at some stage
We would need high vol buying to come in if we are to reach the top of the 59 – 72 range.
My daily models show upside alerts so I expect to see a continuation attempt on the next bar.
Last week’s daily vol’s were low & were influenced by shorter’s on the first two bars making up nearly all the net sell vol for those 2 days but the sp held. Are they done yet?
Weekly
Positives
Stoch 14 has returned to the sig line & looks set to cross & move back into the bullish zone above 50.
MACD has returned to the sig line
Histogram is rising back to zero
Negatives
Stoch 14 is in the bearish zone below 50
MACD is below the sig line
Histogram is below the zero line
Outlook
The uptrend remains strong
Last week’s candle has moved back through s/t resistance at 57 & closed back in the prev B/O area in Nov @ 57. The current range is 57 - 72.5.
A retest is likely but support should now be at 57.
Last wks. high was at the mid-point of the target range at 63.5 & may be s/t resistance.
My weekly models show multi upside alerts so I would expect to see a higher high than the last close at the very least & potentially going on to retest the ATH at 72.5
Next resistance above 63.5 is 68 – 72.
Last wks vol was low net selling of -395,926.
Shorts reported to Thu were 3,741,676 & there is no evidence yet that the open shorts are being closed.
As at the end of last year there were 16,444,381 open positions.
The daily traded vols since then do not seem large enough to cover these although Thu & Fri may be the start.
The spring is being wound up for a new ATH maybe at the end of Jan.
Not long now.
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