Outlook
The charts are now quite bearish looking atm.
The daily support has been broken & it is looking like the start of a downturn similar to the one back in Nov Dec last year.
That may not come to pass though, but I see it is a real potential at this time.
So, if the trend continues, the next potential support below Fri close is the down trending line currently sitting at 63 – 64, this was the prev. B/O line back in Feb. & is also around the 50% Fib level so may be a potential support for the coming week.
Below that again there is a FVG at 60 – 61.7 which is also around the 61% Fib level.
If the set up takes us further down, then there are other levels that will come into play. Possibly as low as 57 - 59 which is also a FVG target & a prev. resistance / support area.
On the positive side, the stochastics are nearing their lower limits & I would expect to see a rally, even if short lived from the 50 or 60% levels.
I would think that the larger vol Frid would include an increase in short selling but that remains to be seen.
The daily vols. up to Fri. were low & low net selling which was again dominated by shorts even though they were quite low as well.
What we are seeing is nothing that we have not seen before & should be expected as per the usual patterns.
Geopolitical events add to them & are useful excuses for the Pros when they coincide.
Weekly
The weekly is also now looking s/t bearish & has reversed back to the 50% Fib line.
I expect to see that trend continue next week, or at least see a lower low.
A retrace & move down to the 61% line is nothing unusual in the AGY patterns.
The nearest support is 63 – 64 (the 50% line) & if that fails then 60 – 61 (the 61% line) is next.
I also see the potential for a swing down to around the old b/o level at 56 – 57.
Resistance in the s/t is 67 – 68.
Vol this week was lower than the prev one & again can be attributed to the BEOT & the shorter’s & possibly in response to the US & the collapse of the SVB & other deteriorating geopolitical events.
Despite the scary red candle, net selling vol was only -1,915,390 & that mostly on Fri.
There are currently 24 mill short positions reported up to the 6/3 that have been accumulated, 12 mill of which were opened up to the 9 Jan in the low 50’s, low 60’s. The last 12 mill from then to the 6/3 would now be mostly in the money. Maybe some of those will be closed out in the near future.
So, for the L/T holders, this is just more of the same & apart from pissing us all off I see nothing to worry about given the continuous progress AGY is making in commissioning the 2kt plant.
Announcements of a potentially doubling or more of the resource & permits for the next 10kt phase should not be forgotten at this time & is just around the corner as well as the 99.7% BG Li rolling off the conveyor each & every day.
For all those who think they missed the boat when we were in the 70’s, now is your chance.
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