Wow,, (OK, I've sat back for a while) Ok,, just to recap some...

Wow,, (OK, I've sat back for a while)

Ok,, just to recap some discussions. (and respond to detractors – for the benefit of those that may be new to TA and sometimes confused by our discussion) This is a charts thread after all.

When I ‘went to school’, (admittedly a long time ago, (I’ve seen more than my fair share of crashes), we were taught to do some essential things when we first pulled up a chart. (Apart from the normal position sizing, risk analysis stuff, entry and exit strategy etc). This is not advice, simply what I was taught.

1. Put in a volume overlay. (Without volume is like driving at night without lights on)
2. Look at Short (daily), Medium (weekly) and Long (Monthly) time frames of the chart.
3. Look for obvious Trend Lines (‘the trend is your friend’)
4. Look for obvious Support and Resistance lines and put in a few of those. If they are not obvious then there probably aren’t any. (I think this chart is difficult to pinpoint ‘strong’ S/R lines. Two points does not “a strong support/trend line “ make.)
5. Then I guess if you have some personal preferences for indicators, add them.

(I personally don’t have many, because I haven’t found too many that work with small/spec stocks reliably, although I’ll often add Coppock on indices, an
OBV, and perhaps some form of MA for smoothing)

1. I was taught to have the Y axis in Logarithmic.. (That’s personal, and suits me attempting to gauge % moves, but not mandatory – each to their own. Check what Investopedia has to say about it, it’s quite good)
2. Originally TA was mostly used by people/brokers/financial institutions who wanted to invest or trade in companies that actually made things, or perhaps dug things up. (ie Real companies not specs) They would have their FA team analyze the company, and perhaps check with their TA people for entry exit points.

In time with the development of PC’s, algo trading, indicators etc became a little more sophisticated. Now its generally adopted by anyone with a computer or that wants to subscribe to the online charting companies. And there’s a plethora of budding young youtubers that want a following.

It was stated that I had ‘limited understanding of my charts’.

Please enlighten me. And also would appreciate your view of any trend lines you see.. (I notice a few others on this page drew similar examples of my trend line on the shorter term basis., and the longer term trendlines confirmed their existing biases at 50c. – ie support where the share price was at the time (?) ) You may recall (the orange trend) suggestions I made with respect to a chart.. Will that hold? Who knows..?

I have no other ‘purpose’ than to better understand the possible moves in SP in the future. There are over 3000 charts I Look at monthly, for flags, so I have no particular bias either way on AGY.

As I’ve previously mentioned , I was a shareholder, and may become again. I like the fundamentals and potential, but in this market, I use TA for timing purposes. (Also something I learnt at school) In this market, I think you need to be on your toes, (trading against the overall market downtrend is fraught with difficulty) so I exited in the low 60’s.

I trade for a living, so I try not to get emotionally attached to my investments/trades. I keep the “Confirmation Bias” trap constantly in my consciousness, as I do, Capital Preservation.

In this case I could easily re-enter the trade and increase my position by 30% at no cost after just a week or two. I choose not to at this point. For those that have been in the AGY market since single figures, well done, I rarely get that opportunity in the way I trade. 10/10 for you.

To some that have suggested I have another motive or stated ‘don’t know my charts’:

I’ve sat back and ‘taken in a few lessons’ like it was recommended by some. Here are some of the lessons I’ve (re)learnt:

1. Don’t put a (trend/support/resistance) line in to suit the narrative in your head.
2. Don’t always expect a S/R or trend line to hold.
3. A chart that looks oversold with a Bollinger Band can always be oversold more.
4. A chart that looks like there’s an RSI divergence can always dissolve with a short sideways move and keep recalculating.
5. It doesn’t matter how many people tell you you are wrong, re-analyse and if your position still remains, stick to your reasons and convictions. If you need to change your beliefs when you are wrong, so be it. TA is not about forecasting the correct sail plan and ‘going for it’. It’s about attempting to analyse crowd psychology , and if the ‘wind changes direction’, then readjust your sails. If you put in a stop loss or have an exit strategy, should your trade go against your perceived SP outcome, stick to it, it can sometimes save you some grief (mine was 62c). You then have the option to re-enter should the SP continues up or down,, depending on the case.
6. Anyone who declares the SP “must” , “will”, “will surely”, “has to”, “can’t” should be treated with suspicion, and either hasn’t been trading for long or is deluded.
7. Of course if you’re a long term investor (and don’t want to adjust your position from time to time, sure, put your scrip in the bottom draw and forget about it for a while.(maybe take a peep now and so often?)
8. One of the main lessons I ‘learnt’ in the past few days, when replying to HC thread, think carefully first, and double check what it is you’re trying to say, and attempt to make it understandable to most – and perhaps don’t rush - I certainly tried with this post - .

And accept that some people won’t see what you’re trying to say, anyway.

I put this post for those that are perhaps new to TA, (not for those that are happy with their knowledge.)

Can I suggest you do some serious reading or training if you want to improve, and avoid listening to youtubers that were in nappies, primary (or even secondary) school during the 2008 GFC.

I’ve been doing it for decades and make a living out of it. And still make mistakes. It’s the nature of the beast.

I get it wrong as mentioned, so this is not investment advice. I have a plan, and it works specifically for me. You need your own.

This is not financial advice, but for further reading, suggest you look for people that may know what they’re doing or properly trained. A decent place to start might be the Australian Technical Analysts Association – Although I imagine (I don’t know for sure) that they stick with the ‘original MO’. (ie investing in companies that make things and money and are doing things. – and of course preferably not broke or requiring a CR )

I have bookshelves full of both contemporary and conservative TA. I’m happy to recommend, but again, they will only teach reasonable process, not “right” and “wrong”.

Now that the SP has just about hit what I would have thought was a possible (though weak) ‘long term trend line’ (again two points are not a strong trend line), I wish you all well..

A final mention, and I leave this thread:

I found whenall my stops on my trades started triggering in 2001, and 2008, there was agood reason, and it kept me largely out of the crashes. Capital Preservation is important if you want to hang around for the long run.