Monthly
Outlook.
Monthly chart looks very bearish.
The MACD has returned to the sig line & looks likely to cross below
The Histogram is almost back to zero
The Stoch though is very wide & is back in the bullish zone above 50.
Indications on the daily & weekly charts may be hinting that the bottom is in but the mthly is not showing that at this stage & I expect to see a retest of the Mar low, or at the least, a lower low than the Mar close.
Depending on what is in the monthly progress report we may get a s/t reversal & potentially recover some of the lost ground.
A lot can happen in a month though & we may well recover some or all of the losses but it does not look like that will happen without either the permits or the updated resource or maybe a finance package.
There is no doubt whatsoever that the selloff in Mar was all the doing of the BEOT & has no relation to the fundamentals.
Without the announcements AGY will remain at the mercy of the Pros.
Monthly support is potentially down around 35 - 36 & resistance is 46 – 50.
If the bottom is in, then support may hold from around the 40 - 43 area.
Weekly
Outlook.
It looks like a base is forming around 40 but the indicators are still very negative looking so that may be tested again in the s/t
Vol was still quite high but was net buying of 4,585,877 & the first net buy vol in 7 weeks.
The indicators are oversold & The MACD is very wide so could be close to turning up.
Support is around 39.5 – 43.5 then down around 35 – 36.
Resistance is 47 – 50 & is around the 23% level & some converging trends.
A positive project update may help us get back above 50 but resistance up there is around 55 – 56.
Any recovery will take time & will only happen if allowed to happen.
The fundamentals will win out in the end though.
How much BG Li was produced in Mar?
Daily
Positives
MACD is still below the sig line but is rising & is almost back to the sig line
Histogram is rising & almost back to zero.
Stoch 14 has risen back to the oversold line & is above its sig line
Stoch 5 is in the bullish zone above 50
Negatives
MACD is below its sig line
Stochastics are pointed down & look like they are going to cross below their sig line
Outlook
Despite the small positive signs I expect to see the downside pressure continue but I would expect that the tentative support around 39 – 41 to hold.
Shorter’s are still active but we did have a couple of days that were maybe some covering.
There is a FVG at 50.7 – 55.5 just begging to be filled, we just need to get through the resistance around 46 – 49 first.
We all know that this downturn is contrived & anyone selling has their head in the sand.
The fundamentals are great & improving.
The commissioning stage is coming to an end & full production soon to kick in.
Permits, funding arrangements with a Tier1 group & a resource upgrade are coming.
Let the Pros shuffle their accounts around between themselves.
Hold onto those shares
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