May as well start the year off with a clean thread
Monthly Dec 30
Positives
Long tail on the candle
Bounced off the 50% retracement line
Low vol on the pull back
MACD is trending higher & above the sig line
Negatives
Stoch has made a lower peak, is at the overbought line & is crossing back below the sig line.
Histogram is lower than prev month.
Failed to make a higher high
Closed below the b/o point around 59
Outlook.
The L/T trend is still intact & rising & we have closed 57% higher than the same time last year.
The long wick on the candle appears to show support above 55 but imo is largely window dressing on the last day of the year.
Shorter’s have been largely responsible for the dismal end to an otherwise stella performance this last year & I doubt if they are finished with us yet despite the fundamentals improving every day.
My Mthly models show multiple downside alerts, so I expect to see further selling pressure in the new year but not necessarily finishing lower.
The B/O pattern is still playing out as expected imo but is looking shaky at this time & depending on how bad the O/S markets get & whether or not the approvals are granted in the coming qtr will be a factor in the support around 50 holding or not.
A lower retrace down to the 61% area & 41.5 – 45 is possible on the next bar.
Support is 50 - 55 initially then down around 49 again along the 50% line.
I won’t be at all surprised if the 61% level is tested around 45 – 46.
Resistance is 59 – 63
Weekly
Positives
Closed higher than the prev bar & above the prev b/o line.
Lower vol during the current down trend
Stoch 14 is wide
The close was above the prev B/O line
Negatives
Stoch 14 has crossed into the bearish zone below 50 & is below the sig line
Histogram is below zero & trending down
MACD has crossed below the sig line & trending down
Frid close is at s/t resistance
Outlook
While my models show multiple upside signals & last week's low appears to have bounced from the 50% line, there is no clear indication that the selling pressure will be any different in the s/t.
Last week was only a 3-day week with net selling vol of 4,8886,270.
The 2 days of reported shorts last week were responsible for 27% of the selling vol.
Support is 49 – 50. Resistance is 57 - 62
The next project update may have something extra, but it does not get much better the this.
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Stay on holidays or just sit back & enjoy the coming year.
Daily
Positives
Stochastics have turned up & crossed above their sig lines
Histogram is trending higher & the MACD is moving back toward the sig line
Negatives
Stochastics are in the bearish zone below 50.
MACD is below its sig line & the Histogram is below zero
Vol was very low on the last bar
Outlook.
My models show multiple upside alerts so I expect to see a higher high on the next bar but the net selling only stopped & turned positive with 20 minutes to close on Friday, so the sharp turnaround is suspect at this stage.
Currently at the s/t steep down trend line & approaching resistance at 59
Frid bar has closed above the prev flag b/o point so support may be around 54 initially then down around 49 – 50 again.
There is a further downside potential in the coming days depending on world markets & the BEOT which could lead to a dip down into the low 40’s but that would be an entirely contrived event & of no concern to L/T holders. Or anyone else for that matter but would present a great entry point for traders if that did eventuate.
Happy new year & hold those shares.
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