Nobel prizes have been awarded for share trading things that turned out to be useless in the real world.
Have to allow for human behaviour which is subject to differences in responses to stimuli over time and also subject to differences in time to react to stimuli over time. Imposed on top of those things is differences in market participation rates over time.
Paradigm shifts in markets also cause shifts in focus and changes in response times.
Gap filling may be fine for well-established situations where you want to track the VWAP and price changes as day traders start to leave a given situation. But extrapolating that usefulness to other areas....... is just wrong.
2023 The Final Countdown, page-2005
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