2023 The Final Countdown, page-2703

We don't know the selling is a short attack, it may just be longs sitting on a nice profit over the past year reducing their position in case the FDA doesn't approve. In a case of fear and greed / hope and regret, they know in their gut that they require 2x the upside compared to the downside loss they can stomach, so reduce their position to take that into account. It doesn't make sense from a probability point of view and means they will always give away mathematically too much upside to control for downside loss - which is why instos make a lot more money than individuals as a group. Not every individual acts like this, but they are also more likely to sell in this situation when the price starts to fall and they see others selling in big volume and there's a lot of negative commentary about.An insto would say, in very rough terms, the short-term upside on approval is $A2 to $A3 and the probability of success is at least 72%, so the price should be $A1.80 pre PDUFA.BUT an individual, seeking to avoid pain might say "I want a price where the potential upside is double the potential downside". My guess is they are using an upside target post approval of $A2.50 and a downside target of $A0.50 - the price where they would be happy to hold (and so stop selling) would therefore be $A1.165 ($A1.335 of upside and 66.5c of downside- i.e. 2 for 1 gain for pain).This is not efficient investing, but is closer to how most individuals think.I suspect the shorts are playing to this fear

Aloha.