MSB (ASX) 2023 The Final Countdown

Originally posted by Southoz: ↑

It’s a good question Ziebes1. The market is forward looking. So if good news is expected within days why is the share price in the toilet?

A good a place to start as any I think would be to ask what has the bookie (the market) is telling us about the odds of approval.

Assume a share price of 120c. Posit ballpark downside / upside estimates. Lets say at a current price of 120c we predict the share price will go to 80c for rejection and 350c for approval.

So risk 40c and reward 230c. Gives you risk reward of 1:6 for an implied probability of success of 15%.

Pretty dismal but for someone who thinks the true probability of success is 70%+ it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity. Even for Whytee’s coin toss of 50:50 implying a 50% chance of approval it’s a very good bet. This is because using the numbers above with a probability of approval of 70% the share price should be around 270c. 120c is a bargain.

Try the risk reward numbers from that world leading analyst - Lopez.

Share price 120. Downside 50c Upside 250c. So risk 70c and reward 130c. Or 1:2 for an implied probability of success of 35%.

But how do we get to the 72% chance of success that he imagines the insto’s are apparently working from?

Share price 193c. Downside 50c. Upside 250c. So risk 143c reward 57c for 5:2 – 72%.

So the argument is that the market has got it very wrong - the share price should be 193c.

It’s a nonsense. The institutions who supposedly believe in the 72% chance of approval are not buying up to 193c. And neither are there enough delusional retail shareholders on Hot Copper to get the share price up to the level that pops out from their silly probability of success estimate.

So what gives ... it is a bit of a conundrum.

Conundrums call for changing tack. My hunch here is that we are heading for an anti-climax.

The outcome I see most likely is that the FDA approves the potency assays and CMC issues. SI also successfully walks the FDA back from their at least one rct position. The next step (agreed with the FDA) is an adult / child propensity score matching gvhd study with the understanding that positive results may lead to approval.

SI can sell this as a win. This type of trial is quicker, easier and cheaper compared to one or more rcts. And arguably more ethical. And with success the prize is also potentially bigger – approval for adults and children.

But what is gained from a propensity scored trial that hasn’t already been achieved from the propensity scored survival analyses that MSB has performed of previous data from the single arm trial and EAP program?

These analyses were post-hoc and correlational. They do nothing to tip the scales of the totality of negative evidence generated from the previous failed rcts of the product across many indications.

A new propensity scored study would be prospective and if done properly (meaning the design agreed with the FDA) can potentially generate causal inferences approximating in strength those from a rct and therefore move the needle on the totality of evidence problem – which is at the heart of the FDA rejection of the original application.

On this scenario there would be little price movement following the decision because the share price will have already got to where it should be; around the 100c – 120c mark; confirming our notions that the market is forward looking.

Expand

Ok - Southoz has locked in $1.20
Dr McStuffins has max upside of $1.50

Neither have stated patient numbers/ market share/ growth outside of the US/ cost of goods/ pricing/ admin costs/ financing - trial funding .

Just - based on the 2020 ADCOM notes and the CRL we are pretty sure everything is baked in/ it won't sell/ doctors won't use it until it completes an RCT / nothing will tip the scales of the totality of negative evidence/ Doc previously saying their is bias in the kids who actually survived.

Is it just me or are these guys negative about this stock ?

Southoz closes his post saying " confirming our notions".... Are you a group ?? Would you mind disclosing who you represent?

By the way @stanjupiter is still waiting for both of you to respond .

For years you have said no hope of approval - now it may get approved - no big deal

Yet you both place a billion dollar valuation on the company after approval.

People may think you are trying to suppress the share price after approval

Reg

No.	Vol.	Price($)
44	111724	$1.00

No.

Vol.

Price($)

111724

$1.00

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.01	80547	23

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$1.01

80547

No.	Vol.	Price($)
57	146833	1.000
9	99453	0.995
14	257303	0.990
7	179076	0.985
8	539833	0.980

No.

Vol.

Price($)

146833

1.000

99453

0.995

257303

0.990

179076

0.985

539833

0.980

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.005	122185	29
1.010	251853	14
1.015	131978	8
1.020	223706	15
1.025	55179	4

Price($)

Vol.

No.

1.005

122185

1.010

251853

1.015

131978

1.020

223706

1.025

55179

(20min delay)
Last $1.01		Change -0.005(0.50%)		Mkt cap ! $1.158B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.02	$1.02	$1.00	$1.728M	1.713M

2023 The Final Countdown, page-2760

Earnings wrap Monday Week 34: A2 Milk, Bluescope, Suncorp's climate woes & more

Gold intercept of 8.6 g/t continues the positive storyline for Santana at NZ's RAS deposit

Good habits matters when it comes to finances

Noxopharm aims for autoimmune market with first human trial of SOF-SKN

Fourfold skarn increase points the way to viable garnet project, says Pure

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

2023 The Final Countdown, page-2760

Top Stories

Earnings wrap Monday Week 34: A2 Milk, Bluescope, Suncorp's climate woes & more

Gold intercept of 8.6 g/t continues the positive storyline for Santana at NZ's RAS deposit

Good habits matters when it comes to finances

Noxopharm aims for autoimmune market with first human trial of SOF-SKN

Fourfold skarn increase points the way to viable garnet project, says Pure

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News