2023 The Final Countdown, page-75

Yeah, it certainly adds a second element of excitement to the mixture. At the last CR, short positions dropped from approximately 8% to 2%, meaning they closed out 6% of the positions ( most of them ) during the CR.

If:
1. A partnership that involves funding gets announced and CR is not required through shorting funds ( Most likely for CHF, possibly CLBP ).
2. A milestone has been reached for the further drawdown of the loan.
3. Approval for Ryopncil occurs prior to a CR ( April 2nd - Aug 2nd )
4. AA for CHF is announced prior to a CR ( April 1st - Jul31st )
5. The company delays CLBP commencement to minimise spend further, avoiding CR until after Aug 2nd, or until after 1 / 2 / 3 or 4.

Then the SP will benefit hugely from the shorts needing to purchas back 40 million odd shares, in a market where every man, woman, child, granparents, newbies, thereabout will be scrambling to get back into the action as the company goes back into the ASX200, then funds need to get in on it also.

If:
1. The next big "thing" that happens to the company is they announce a CR, and that happens prior to any possible AA for CHF, prior to Ryoncil approval, prior to the loan drawdown, prior to any possible partnership announcement - then MSB get funding that will pay for their biggest blockbuster - the CLBP trial and the shorts will use the get out of jail free card, and probably make $ along the way.
However...... As I stipulated above, the longer this scenario takes to unfold, the more committed the shorts will need to be ( looking like about 2% per month, plus extra to counter any minor good news between now and then in order to suppress the share price, and it really does rely on nothing happening between now an the CR. If anything of significance happens they will not be able to contain the upwards pressure any more and several of the scenarios do not have the get out of jail card either.

They will, in a way amplify the success of the company through by ensuring the continued funding of the company at the same time, as pushing the SP up in certain scenarious they are betting against.
What is the best case for us shareholders?

I am sure that we all want the SP to be where it should be, so any scenario where MSB is funded is good for shareholders, but a scenario where the funding comes from elsewhere will be fantastic for the shareprice ( loan drawdown, CHF accelerated approval, Ryoncil accelerated approval, or partnership announced any time or in conjunction with AA for something ). The longer this takes, the shorts will need to keep adding, maybe even up to 2% a month. In Jan the company had $85 million USD in the bank, if they delay CLBP and reduce 1/4 burn to around 15 million, there is a very, very , very good chance the shorts will need to keep this up at least until the Aug date, by which time the cash balance could be 55 million excluding the 40 million drawdown.- you can double check those, I was using the Jan company presentation from MSB for the 85 million on hand figure and previous reduced cash burn figures.

That could ( If they need 2% a month to supress ) , mean by July around 12% shorted ( about 70 - 80 million shares to buy back ).... and probably status of the Number 1 % wise shorted company on the ASX. And that could be the best case scenario for shareholders, where it takes that long, and the shorts are more committed, and then the company gets Ryoncil approval, which probably means another 40 million USD / or the CHF partnership materialises following an AA. They are already in discussions with potential partners.

Given the shorts are positioning for another CR, it appears they are more than happy to particiapate, which takes care of the " will MSB fail to get funding " concern for me ...... the shorts think so anyway.