2024 Charts

Its time for a new chart thread & leave the old one behind. Hopefully this one can remain on track.
Happy New Year & good luck for the year ahead.

Daily
Positives
Small rising triangle formed.
Stoch 5 is above the sig line & has reached the mid-range area at 50
Stoch 14 is above its sig line & crossing through 50 into the bullish zone.
MACD is above the sig line & rising.
MACD & RSI divergences
Histogram is above zero & rising.

Negatives
Tested the resistance twice on low vol & failed.
Stoch 5 is very wide & may pull back from the mid area.

Outlook
While there are some positives on the daily, I think that in the s/t, pressure from the MM is likely to keep the sp in the current 12.5 – 15 range until the awaited issues are sorted. Hopefully not for much longer.
A break above 15 with the right ann. & the s/t target is 18 initially & potentially up to around 22.
Breakdown through 12 – 12.5 though & the downside target is 8 – 10.

For L/T - med holders this is a pretty frustrating time but not the end of the world, we just have to be patient.
I don’t see too much downside risk at these levels.

Weekly
Positives.
Stoch 14 has crossed above the sig line.
MACD is above its sig line & rising & has been divergent for the last 7 weeks.
RSI divergence.
Histogram is above zero.

Negatives
Stoch 14 is in the oversold area.
The trend is down.

Outlook
Currently holding support around 13 but at a minor resistance around 14 so in a tight range.
The weekly looks a bit more promising than the other charts in so much as it has been showing a MACD & RSI divergence for around 7 weeks now & taking into consideration that shorts have covered substantially plus the positive expectations of permit approvals, resource upgrade & test works to determine filtration rates etc. being sorted as per the last update, I expect a positive rerate by the end of Jan.

However, with none of those eventuating in a timely manner, the outlook may well be very negative in the s/t.

If we get a rally, resistance is up around 18. With a halfway decent announcement,
we may get back up to 24.
A breakdown again & the initial target is around 10 then potentially down to 7 - 8
12 months ago, you would give anything to buy at these prices.
Now is your chance.

Monthly Dec 2023
Positives
Stoch 14 has returned to the sig line.
Histogram is higher than Nov.
Vol fell as sp made new low.

Negatives
Stoch is below its sig line & is in the oversold area.
MACD is still trending down.

Outlook
The Dec high failed to break through resistance at 18 & follow through on the prev. months attempt to rally & closed near the lows, this has made for a very negative looking candle & aspect.
Shorter’s are still very active & in control & just because they have closed out some positions means nothing.
Shorts for the month were 24,632,004 & in the early part of the month these pushed the sp down from 18 to the low at 12.
Analysing the data, it can be seen that of the total shorts, only 6,858,189 were reported to the ASX on the daily reports while ASIC reports show 19,827,416 new positions over the same period. Therefore, there were a total of 17,773,815 shorts that were not reported to the ASX.
Net volume for the month was 2,705,955 net buying.

In the absence of anything positive being announced in Jan there is the potential for a push down to the next support area which is down around 8.

The monthly is the most negative looking chart of the three time frames but given the few positives on the daily & wkly a reversal could start at any time so I will take a punt & say that the bottom is in with a very tentative support around 12 & we will close above 18 in Jan.
Resistance is around 18 then up around 22 - 25.