We've seen a pretty rapid drop and 8c was the magic gap fill figure, so we might see the dead cat bounce after hitting this latest step, but yeah, it has further to fall.
It'll be interesting to see if there's any recovery next week (Monday is the first trading day of the new financial year) or if that will trigger the next downward leg. If there's no production update on Monday it'll probably be downward movement. Then again, if there is a production update it'll most likely be bad, so, downward movement. Given that it's probably going to be bad they might as well rip the band aid off and do it this week so the new financial month can be started fresh. I'm tipping the update will come on Monday though.
It seems a lot of people forgot the old 'Sell in May and stay away' thing (and since that rhyme has been around for so many years now, it tends to be better to sell in March-April). It especially applies to companies like AGY where things aren't pretty.
A few here might be talking about buying, and obviously there are some buyers of AGY, but I really can't imagine too many people being keen to put their money into AGY. We've seen a lot of volume recently after the price dropped below 10c, so a lot of shares are in fresh hands and presumably a lot of those will be hoping to see bounces off 10c, 8.6c long term support, and the 8c gap fill figure. Large, recent volume around multi year low prices means a lot of loosely-held shares which are likely to be quickly dumped back on to the market if there's bad news, which is what we're probably going to see within a week. Very interested to see how the plant is going, and while I think there's less than a snowflake's chance in a bonfire, it would be great if the progress was good and I could buy for around half my sale price.
Definitely an interesting situation to watch, and much more comfortable to be doing it without skin in the game. At this point the dedicated holders who held on even when things looked bleak and it was obviously going to fall through support will be very stubbornly reluctant to sell, I've been in that frame of mind before, not recently and it's a lesson you want to learn quickly so you don't repeat it, it's not fun having that knife continue cutting your hand as it continues falling, but being stuck in the mindset of continuing to hold being the right thing to do.
Cue the haters and their usual pain-fuelled attacks ironically directed at the person who literally told them what was going to happen before it did.
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