For those with poor eyesight, you may have missed that in their “exhibit 8”, Morgan Stanley present the oversupply “forecast”….. but it seems that in this “forecast”, they have included supply from what they call:
Operating
Plus
Committed projects
Plus
Non-committed projects
Plus
Projects at 100% basis (theorteically available).
Wow. Ponder that.
In 2026, just 2 years from now, it appears they are pointing to an oversupply of almost 600kt LCE.
In that same period, they indicate demand increasing by around 500ktpa, so they appear to be suggesting that supply will increase by around 1 million tonnes over the next 2 years.
Even if that oversupply is cumulative, their “exhibit 7” indicates an increase in demand of circa 250kt in 2025, and another circa 250kt in 2026, so including their 193kt oversupply in 2024, and considering their 2026 oversupply figure of 556kt, they seem to be suggesting a total increase in supply (over 2 years) of:
(250kt+250kt)+(556kt-193kt)
= 863kt LCE
Read that again.
Are they actually forecasting an increase in supply, over the next 2 years, of 863kt LCE…???
…but hang on, that includes, it would appear, supply from every possible new project and expansion….? Is that realistic?
Is that anywhere even close to realistic?
Where is their “oversupply” chart that incorporates a more realistic view of the likely new supply, the “highly-probable” new supply; one that excludes projects that are borderline or non-viable under their pricing forecast?
Detail matters.
Very very interesting.
DYOR
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